Vaccines and government financial support will help the global economy recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021, predicted OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone.
But the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) prediction also said that recovery will be uneven in countries around the world and will depend heavily on the success of the fight against COVID-19.
“The contribution of Europe and North America to global growth will remain less than their weight in the world economy,” the OECD’s chief economist said when presenting a report published on Tuesday.
“China, which began to recover earlier, is expected to grow strongly, accounting for more than a third of world economic growth in 2021.
OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria said it was a sign of “hope” for the first time since the attack on the pandemic earlier this year.
“The good news about vaccines has instilled a degree of optimism … but we are not out of the woods yet,” he said.
The OECD predicts that the global economy will shrink by about 4.2% this year and recover by the same rate in 2021.
It will grow by 3.7% the following year, Angel Gurria predicted.
But Gurria warned that “this would still leave all OECD economies smaller by the end of 2021 than by the end of 2019;
Many European governments are gradually reopening their economies as cases of the virus are under control and the winter shopping season begins before Christmas and New Year.
Boone said the vaccine would be crucial to the turnaround: “Effective vaccination campaigns and better cooperation between countries could accelerate the distribution of the vaccine around the world.
“On the other hand, the current resurgence of the virus in many places reminds us that governments may be forced again to tighten restrictions on economic activity.
