The consultancy firm NKC African Economics said on Friday that the support of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to Mozambique will take months and that the number of troops will be less than expected.
Considering the pace at which the work has been going and the fluidity of the composition of the military force, we expect that it will take several more months before there are finally troops on the ground in Cabo Delgado, and we also anticipate that this force will be smaller than what was allegedly recommended by member states,” write the analysts.
In a commentary on Wednesday’s SADC decision to send regional troops to Cabo Delgado, the African branch of Oxford Economics writes that “although the insurgency is costing the state natural gas exploration deals with international oil companies, the country has so far prioritized sovereignty over security.
In the analysis, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the analysts point out that “the government of Filipe Nyusi is very reluctant to allow foreign troops access to the region, accepting only aid, training and logistical support for the response to the situation.
NKC African Economics also warns that “details regarding the rapid intervention force in Cabo Delgado will still have to be agreed between the member states” and recalls that “the force itself is still mainly theoretical, since although the mechanisms for its formation were established in 2007, such a force has only been mobilized once, in Lesotho, in 2017.”
In this case, the military force was initially composed of 1,200 troops, but this number was eventually reduced to 258, analysts recall, comparing that for Mozambique there are unofficially confirmed indications that the proposed number of troops may reach 2,900.
The SADC, meeting Wednesday in an extraordinary summit, approved the mandate of a “joint force on standby” to support Mozambique in the fight against terrorism in Cabo Delgado. The organization did not give details of the force that will be sent to the country or dates, reiterating only that the “mission” is to support Mozambican government forces in the fight against insurgency in northern Mozambique.
Armed groups have terrorized Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province since 2017, with some attacks claimed by the jihadist group Islamic State, in a wave of violence that has led to more than 2,800 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project, and 732,000 displaced people, according to the United Nations (UN).
The violence has also led oil company TotalEnergies to suspend preparatory work for natural gas exploration in Cabo Delgado, on which the country depends to increase revenue and revive the economy. Also according to the UN, more than 900,000 people are under severe food insecurity in Cabo Delgado and host communities are also in urgent need of shelter, protection and other services.
