The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East conflict will cause a global oil supply shortfall of eight million barrels per day this month, Lusa reported on Thursday, March 12.
In its monthly oil market report, the IEA highlights that this conflict represents the largest supply disruption in history, noting that with an average of 98.8 million barrels per day this month, oil output to the market will drop to levels last seen in the first quarter of 2022.
This decline would represent a 7.5% decrease compared to the supply recorded in February.
According to the agency’s data, flows that normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz (15 million barrels per day of crude oil and 5 million barrels per day of petroleum products) have been reduced to less than 10%.
These losses can only be partially offset in the short term by increased production from some non-OPEC producers, mainly the United States, Canada, as well as Russia and Kazakhstan, which will recover part of the decline experienced in February.
The IEA announced on Wednesday, March 11, that its 32 member countries will release up to 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves—the largest operation of its kind in history—to try to compensate for the supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize the market.
Markets had anticipated since Monday, March 9, that the IEA would tap its strategic reserves, which had already caused the oil price to drop from its peak earlier that day (Brent reached $120 per barrel).
When it became known on Wednesday, March 11, that the 32 IEA member countries would release up to 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the price briefly fell below $90 per barrel. However, in the following hours, it rose again above $100 due to uncertainty about the duration of the war and how long the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked. On Thursday morning, Brent remained above $95 per barrel.
In the absence of a quick resolution to the conflict, the agency warns that this partial release—equivalent to about one-third of its total strategic reserves—“remains a temporary measure,” and that the ultimate impact of the conflict on oil and gas markets will depend on damage to energy infrastructure and the duration of the blockade in this critical maritime strait.
Oil Supply Estimates for 2026
The IEA estimates that, for the full year, oil supply will rise by an average of 1.1 million barrels per day compared to 2025, reaching 107.2 million barrels per day. This represents a significant downward revision from the 2.4 million barrels per day growth forecast just a month ago, before the Middle East conflict began with US and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28.
Non-OPEC producers and their partners will contribute entirely to this growth, particularly the United States and Brazil.
Regarding demand, the report’s authors also revised their expectations downward significantly, as they now predict that demand in March and April will be about one million barrels per day lower than previously forecast.
The main reason is reduced kerosene consumption due to largely halted air traffic in the Middle East, with implications for the rest of the world, and the disruption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely affected the supply chain for liquefied petroleum gas production.
In the medium term, the IEA anticipates changes in consumer behavior worldwide due to rising fuel prices.
