Around 3.8 billion people could be exposed to extreme heat by 2050, a challenge that mainly affects tropical regions, but which will also have an impact on current temperate regions, which will also have to adapt.
According to Lusa, scientists, who published their findings in the journal Nature Sustainability, studied the consequences of different warming scenarios on the number of people who may experience temperatures considered too high or too low in the future.
According to these projections, the population that will experience extreme heat conditions is expected to “almost double” by 2050 if global temperatures rise 2 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels. This would affect 3.79 billion people, double the number in 2010.
But most of the effects are expected to be felt in this decade, as the world approaches the 1.5°C warming limit, Jesus Lizana of Oxford University, the study’s lead author, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
“The need to adapt to extreme heat is more urgent than previously estimated,” he emphasized. “New infrastructure needs to be built in the coming years, such as passive cooling systems or sustainable air conditioning,” he added.
Prolonged exposure to extreme heat, often called the “silent killer,” can overwhelm the body’s ability to adapt, causing dizziness, headaches, or even death.
The demand for energy for cooling would increase dramatically in developing countries, which would face the most serious health consequences. India, the Philippines, and Bangladesh would be among the countries with the highest number of people affected.
The most significant change in temperatures, which requires some form of cooling, air conditioning, or fans, would affect tropical and equatorial countries, particularly in Africa. But Laos and Brazil are also among the most affected nations, along with the Central African Republic, Nigeria, and South Sudan.
“The most disadvantaged are also those who will suffer most from this trend of increasing hot days,” said Radhika Khosla, co-author of the study. But richer countries, which currently enjoy a temperate climate, “also face a big problem — even if many of them don’t realize it yet.”
Although Canada, Russia, and Finland may see a decrease in the number of days requiring heating, they will also experience an increase, albeit moderate, in the number of hotter days, for which they are unprepared.
“Rich countries cannot simply wait and assume that everything will be fine. In many cases, they are dangerously unprepared for the heat that lies ahead in the coming years,” warned Jesus Lizana.
