On Sunday (the 15th), the consulting firm Oxford Economics noted that high oil prices in Angola are positive for public finances, but also increase the energy bill due to limited refining capacity, which forces the country to import oil.
“The impact of high Brent crude oil prices on the Angolan economy is ambiguous,” say analysts from the African division of this British consultancy, which revised its global forecast for the price of oil in the second quarter from $64 per barrel to $79.
The Angolan economy “certainly stands to gain from high prices, as increased oil export revenue significantly improves the country’s budget and external balances, but due to insufficient refining capacity, Angola must also import refined oil for domestic use and relies on high fuel subsidies to keep domestic prices affordable for the population,” the analysts explain.
“If Brent crude oil prices remain high for an extended period, the government may struggle to maintain these subsidies amid higher import prices for refined oil,” which creates a “fiscal vulnerability that is not ideal for a country grappling with a high debt service burden.”
This week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that Angola will produce 1.10 million barrels per day this year—30,000 barrels per day more than the forecast by Oxford Economics, which projects a 6.5% increase in production this year to 1.13 million barrels per day, compared to the average production in 2025.
“The oil projects launched this year will give a significant boost to oil production in 2026,” analysts argue, noting that if production is not in line with the forecast by the middle of the second quarter, the estimate will be revised downward, bringing it closer to the IEA’s scenario.
According to data from this agency, national oil production improved to 1.09 million barrels per day in February, up from 1.07 million in January, a rise that follows the revision of December 2025 production, which was reduced from 1.07 to 1.06 million barrels per day.
Source: Lusa
