The consultancy Fitch Solutions said on Monday that oil production in Angola will fall 20% by 2031 due to the maturation of oil wells and a chronic lack of investment in new discoveries.
“The main reason for the mediocre growth in oil production is the legacy effect of maturing oil wells,” Fitch Solutions says in a comment note on keeping production below the limit set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
“The drop in production from Angola’s current wells means that a higher rate of production growth is needed to maintain production at current levels; Angola needs around 36,000 more barrels per day of production to offset the impact of the natural decline,” said the analysts from this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings.
In its commentary, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions said, “Angola has seen a slight rise in production levels, with several small projects coming on stream, but this quarter we expect the slight rise in production to stagnate, returning to negative growth in 2023, with the effect of the decline of wells materialising.
Angola’s production has hovered around 1.1 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, well below the limit of about 1.5 million barrels per day imposed by OPEC.
“The new limit for Angola under OPEC’s total production is well above production capacities, and past growth rates indicate that there is a very low probability of Angola approaching OPEC’s limits in the near term,” the analysts conclude.