Oxford Economics said on Thursday that inflation in Angola is expected to stand at 28.1% this year, slowing to 19% in 2025, following the slowdown in prices that has been recorded over the last three months.
“We maintain our forecast that inflation will continue to slow for the rest of this year and in 2025, due to favourable base effects and reduced pressures from global commodity prices,” wrote the analysts from Oxford Economics’ African department.
In the note sent to investors, to which Lusa had access, on the evolution of price rises in Angola, Oxford Economics writes that “the weakening of the Angolan national currency in the second half of the year, to more than 900 kwanzas per dollar, will slow disinflation a little in 2025,” which is why they anticipate inflation to be 28.1% this year and 19% in 2025.
The forecast is based on an oil price of US$72.6 per barrel and “a modest increase of 1.7% in oil production in 2025, resulting in a decline of 2% in oil exports compared to 2024”.
Thus, they conclude, the Angolan currency should be worth an average of 922.7 kwanzas per dollar in 2025, which represents a weakening compared to 870 kwanzas per dollar this year.
Inflation in Angola slowed down again in October, standing at 29.17%, down 0.76 percentage points compared to 29.93% in September, but still 12.59 percentage points above the figure for the same month in 2023, according to the National Statistics Institute’s Quick Facts Sheet on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has been on a downward trend for three months.
“Food and non-alcoholic beverages” were the classes that contributed most to the increase in the general price level with 1.01 percentage points during October, followed by “miscellaneous goods and services”, “health” and “clothing and footwear”
In October, the monthly inflation rate was 1.55%, which represents a slowdown of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous month, according to the Quick Facts Sheet.
The ‘Health’ and ‘Hotels, cafés and restaurants’ classes recorded the biggest price increases in monthly terms, with a variation of 2.06%.
Also noteworthy were the price increases in the ‘Clothing and footwear’ sector with 1.84% and ‘Alcoholic beverages and tobacco’ with 1.81%.
Lusa
