The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Angola’s economic growth forecast to 2.4% for 2025, a cut of 0.6 percentage points from the 3.0% projected in January. At the same time, it raised the year-end inflation forecast from 18.9% to 20.1%, according to the World Economic Outlook report released this week as part of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings.
This downgrade is primarily due to the downward revision of the average oil price, now expected to be USD 66.94 per barrel, below the USD 69.76 per barrel forecast earlier this year by the multilateral institution. This figure is also under the USD 70 per barrel benchmark set by the Angolan government in the 2025 State Budget (OGE2025), which may strain the government’s ability to implement spending policies and accelerate currency depreciation.
The IMF’s projections are the most pessimistic compared to other institutions. The World Bank, for example, in its “Africa’s Pulse” report, forecasts growth of 2.7%, while Standard Bank predicts a rate of 2.9%. These projections suggest GDP will once again grow at a rate slightly below the population growth (3.1% per year).
The Angolan government, on the other hand, is more optimistic, expecting growth around 3.8%, though this is already a downgrade from the 4.1% projected in the OGE2025.
As for inflation, the IMF projects the highest rate, at 20.1% by the end of this year, while the National Bank of Angola (BNA) forecasts a rate of 17.5%, and the government expects around 16.6%.
Global Economy to Grow 2.8%
The IMF also revised down its forecast for global economic growth to 2.8% this year, from 3.3% projected in January. For 2026, the institution expects growth of 3%, down from the 3.3% it also estimated in January.
“The rapid escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of political uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity,” the Fund explained.
Thus, the IMF projects that growth in advanced economies will be 1.4% in 2025, estimating that “growth in the United States will slow to 1.8%,” a figure 0.9 percentage points lower “than projected in the January update, due to greater political uncertainty, trade tensions, and weaker demand momentum.” Meanwhile, euro area growth is expected to slow by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8%, compared to January estimates.
In emerging markets and developing economies, growth is projected to “slow to 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, with significant declines for countries most affected by recent trade measures, such as China,” the report warned.
Source: Expansão
