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Angola: Fitch Points to Reasons for Protests and Foresees Rebellions in Coming Months

Angola: Fitch Points to Reasons for Protests and Foresees Rebellions in Coming Months

The consultancy Fitch Solutions points to the reduced difference in the result of the last elections that gave victory to the MPLA as the main factor that maintains a high risk of protests in Angola. In the consultancy’s opinion, the Angolan opposition is reflected in the ‘protesting’ youth.
The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola won the last presidential elections with 51.2 percent, the worst result ever, which makes the consultancy predict the continuation of “high risks of protests.

The analysis cited by RTP, Fitch Solutions points to a growing young opposition in the country, representing about 25 percent of the over 14 million votes “and that has shown discontent with the high level of unemployment and low living standards, despite the country’s oil wealth.

For Fitch Solutions, the mobilisation capacity of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) is high, given the 2,000 young people who took to the streets in September when the party took to the streets to contest what it says was electoral fraud.

“We anticipate that there will be more demonstrations against the government in the coming quarters, as the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation will continue to fuel anti-MPLA sentiment,” they point out, adding that “despite popular pressure to improve the population’s socioeconomic conditions, the MPLA will be slow to implement the reforms and João Lourenço’s promise to create more jobs and better living conditions, due to the high costs of external financing.”

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Even though protests may increase, Fitch Solutions sees no danger of an overthrow of the government outside the Constitution: “We do not foresee that the protests pose any real danger to the stability of the party that sustains the government, since the MPLA has a strong control of the security apparatus,” they said, concluding that in João Lourenço’s second mandate, the economy should accelerate to an average growth of 2.3% between 2022 and 2027, improving on the -1.5% registered between 2016 and 2021.

MZNEWS

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