Angola’s inflation forecast has been revised downward to 8.6% by end-2026, while the economic growth projection was raised to 3.6%, the governor of the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA), Manuel Tiago Dias, announced on Tuesday (14).
“With no inflationary pressures foreseen in the coming months, the Monetary Policy Committee (CPM) revised downward its inflation rate projection to 8.6% by end-2026, with a variation range of plus or minus one percentage point,” the governor said at the close of the 130th Ordinary Meeting of the committee, held in the province of Malanje.
At the CPM’s previous meeting, held in May in Luanda, the central bank had projected inflation of 11.5% by end-2026.
According to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), year-on-year inflation stood at 10.11% in June, down from 19.73% recorded in the same month of the previous year, confirming the ongoing deceleration in price growth.
The GDP growth forecast was also revised upward, from 3.5% to 3.6%, reflecting the positive performance of the non-oil sector, which is now estimated to grow by 4.32%.
In reading the final communiqué, Manuel Tiago Dias noted that, according to INE data, Angola’s GDP grew 5.32% in the first quarter of 2026, “driven by the positive contribution of economic activity in the non-oil sector,” which recorded a growth rate of 6.22%, while the oil sector contracted by 0.21%.
Monthly inflation stood at 0.52% in June, down from 0.53% in May, reflecting a deceleration in prices within the “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” category, “notwithstanding adjustments to diesel prices of 5%, electricity tariffs of 10%, and urban and suburban rail public transport services of 50%”.
Ten Angolan provinces recorded single-digit year-on-year inflation rates, with Huambo (7.53%), Lunda Norte (7.65%), Cunene (7.75%), and Cuanza Norte (7.88%) among the most notable. Luanda also recorded a rate below 10%, coming in at 9.96%.
Responding to journalists, the governor argued that “low and stable” inflation, accompanied by productivity gains and “improvements in wages,” would allow the population to begin “feeling the effects of the fall in inflation.” He further noted that, at the current rate, “the loss of purchasing power of citizens has already been lower” than in 2024 and 2025, years in which inflation reached 27.5% and 15.7%, respectively.
Manuel Tiago Dias also highlighted that, despite the generally elevated price level, many products had actually seen price reductions, particularly in the “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” category, “since it is through this category that the impact on the final consumer can truly be measured.”
“According to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), year-on-year inflation stood at 10.11% in June, compared to 19.73% recorded in the same month of the previous year, confirming the trend of price deceleration,” the governor stated.
Among the benefits of falling inflation, the governor pointed to a reduction in interest rates charged by commercial banks, noting that the overnight interbank money market rate “is already around 12%”.
Interest rates “are negotiable,” he added, urging businesses seeking financing to take advantage of the “competitive space” available in a market with 22 operating banks.
On the risks to the price trajectory, Manuel Tiago Dias acknowledged it was “somewhat risky” to speak with a horizon of end-2026, but assured that, ahead of the next CPM meeting, there were no “major risks capable of undermining the downward trajectory of prices” in the Angolan economy.
The governor added that when the INE publishes July inflation data in August, the central bank expects Angola to “already be recording single-digit inflation.”
Source: Diário Económico
Original article: https://www.diarioeconomico.co.mz/2026/07/15/mundo/angola/angola-bna-reve-inflacao-em-baixa-e-crescimento-do-pib-em-36-em-2026/
