Banco Fomento Angola (BFA) has revised upwards its growth forecast for the Angolan economy, now estimating an expansion of up to 4.5 per cent in 2024. The revision comes after the release of data for the third quarter, which showed a better than expected performance, driven by growth in the non-oil sector and a sharper recovery in the oil economy, according to Lusa.
According to BFA’s economic studies office, the Angolan economy recorded year-on-year growth of 5.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, while the quarter-on-quarter variation was 2.94 per cent, according to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE). These results led analysts to revise their previous forecasts, which pointed to an expansion of just 3.1 per cent last year.
The bank’s report highlights that the non-oil economy was the main driver of growth, registering an expansion of 6.3 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2023. Among the sectors that contributed most to this development were the extraction of diamonds and other minerals, fishing, transport and storage, trade and services.
At the same time, the oil economy also surprised by growing at a faster rate than expected, leading to the revision of forecasts for this sector, which should now see growth of between 2.65 per cent and 2.9 per cent in 2024. This performance contributed to the improvement in GDP projections, which could vary between 2.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent over the course of the year.
BFA also emphasises that this was the 14th consecutive quarter of year-on-year GDP growth, consolidating the recovery trend of the Angolan economy. However, it warns of possible challenges, such as the volatility of oil prices and the need for structural reforms to guarantee the sustainability of economic growth.
The revision of the economic forecasts reinforces optimism about the trajectory of the Angolan economy, but the analysts emphasise that sustainable growth will depend on increased investment in the non-oil sector and the implementation of economic policies that promote the diversification of the economy.
