The Zimbabwean government expects economic growth to slow to 5% in 2026 due to global difficulties that continue to affect the country, announced Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube during the presentation of the State Budget.
The minister also explained that this year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.6%, above the initial forecast of 6%. Mthuli Ncube told lawmakers that this expansion results from a strong recovery in the agricultural and mining sectors, following an El Niño-induced drought that reduced growth to 1.7% in 2024.
Despite the current momentum, the minister warned of a slowdown in 2026, stating that economic growth “is projected at 5%, moderated by external challenges.” He stressed that the international context continues to weigh on vulnerable economies such as Zimbabwe’s.
According to the minister, “although this represents a moderate recovery, growth remains weaker than expected due to persistent global headwinds, weak external demand and energy deficits affecting some countries, as well as financial constraints.” The international environment therefore limits the country’s expansion capacity.
The government intends to strengthen fiscal discipline. Mthuli Ncube said the target for 2026 is a budget deficit of 0.2% of GDP, below the estimated 0.3% for this year, a move aimed at ensuring greater public-finance stability.
Inflation, currently at 19% in November compared with the same period last year, is expected to fall to around 10% by year-end, according to the minister. The downward trend is expected to continue until inflation reaches single-digit levels in early 2026, supported by exchange-rate stability and tighter fiscal and monetary policies.
“If this happens, it will be the first time we achieve single-digit domestic inflation since 1997,” Mthuli Ncube highlighted, noting that consolidating macroeconomic stability is a central objective of the government’s strategy.
Despite these advances, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reiterated last month that it cannot provide financial assistance to Zimbabwe due to outstanding arrears. Even so, it acknowledged progress in ongoing economic reforms and remains in talks regarding a possible staff-monitored programme.
Zimbabwe’s total public debt stands at USD 23.4 billion, of which USD 13.6 billion corresponds to external debt. “As part of the implementation of the Arrears Clearance and Debt Resolution Process, the government is negotiating with the IMF with the aim of signing a staff-monitored programme during the first quarter of 2026,” Mthuli Ncube concluded.
