Currency traders are forecasting gains for the Ugandan shilling and Zambian kwacha in the coming weeks, driven by a combination of subdued import demand and strong mining-related inflows.
The trend reflects a broader stabilisation effort across several African currency markets, where central banks are actively managing volatility and foreign exchange reserves.
In Uganda, the shilling is expected to appreciate modestly as seasonal demand for foreign currency subsides. Traders cite decreased import activity and resilient coffee and tourism earnings as contributing factors. The Bank of Uganda has also signalled its intention to continue mopping up excess liquidity to curb inflation and maintain monetary stability.
Zambia’s kwacha, meanwhile, is benefitting from improved copper export revenues amid firm global prices. The country’s mining sector remains a key source of foreign exchange, and recent steps to restructure sovereign debt have improved investor sentiment. Analysts believe the kwacha could see further support if copper prices remain elevated and mining output continues to recover.
In contrast, Nigeria’s naira and Ghana’s cedi are projected to remain relatively stable in the short term. Nigeria’s Central Bank has tightened monetary policy and increased forex interventions to support the naira, while Ghana continues to manage inflation and rebuild reserves under its IMF programme. Both currencies have recently come under pressure, but policymakers appear committed to restoring confidence and anchoring expectations.
Across the region, fiscal discipline, diversified exports, and improved monetary governance are seen as key to long-term currency stability. As commodity markets remain favourable, resource-backed economies like Zambia and Uganda may continue to outperform peers in currency terms—provided reforms stay on track.
Fonte: Further Africa
