The time has come for us to look back and assess a Retrospective Sub-Saharan Africa 2024. From economic hurdles to historic investments, the region continues to reflect resilience and untapped potential. While crises, such as post-electoral unrest in Mozambique, cast shadows, significant economic developments, such as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery investments, offer glimmers of progress.
Against this backdrop, 2024 stands as a year where Africa’s growth narrative balances between challenge and transformation. The region’s outlook remains complex. Inflationary pressures, external debt, and political instability have tested economies. Yet, robust investments in energy, infrastructure, and technology are shaping a brighter future. This retrospective explores both the setbacks and strides that defined the year, underscoring the continent’s underlying promise.
Navigating Economic Realities
Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2024 facing headwinds from 2023’s global economic slowdown. Rising interest rates, a strong US dollar, and subdued commodity prices continued to challenge fiscal stability. Countries dependent on oil, minerals, and agricultural exports struggled with fluctuating revenue streams.
Inflation, although easing in some areas, remained persistent. Food prices continued to escalate, exacerbating cost-of-living pressures for millions. Governments responded with monetary tightening measures to stabilise economies. In parallel, reform efforts sought to enhance revenue collection, reduce deficits, and boost investor confidence.
Despite these challenges, growth remained steady. The IMF projected regional GDP growth at approximately 3.8%, slightly outperforming 2023. Countries like Côte d’Ivoire and Rwanda stood out, registering notable economic expansion due to robust investment and improved governance. These pockets of progress highlight Africa’s capacity to recover and adapt.
Crisis and Recovery: Regional Stability
Mozambique, one of the most promissing emerging stories early in the year, faced civil unrest promoted by an oposition candidate following contentious post-election disputes. The tensions disrupted businesses and investor sentiment in the short term. However, seasoned investors believe that order and stability will be restored as a new administration is likely to focus on long-term measures, economic recovery and electoral reforms.
This crisis mirrored ongoing political instabilities across parts of the Sahel and East Africa. Sudan’s prolonged conflict and Ethiopia’s fragile peace posed significant risks to regional growth. Yet, efforts by economic blocs such as the African Union (AU) and ECOWAS continue to mediate and stabilise affected nations.
These challenges remind us that Africa’s growth story is neither linear nor immune to setbacks. However, countries that prioritise inclusive governance, economic diversification, and regional cooperation are finding pathways to recovery.
Energy Investments: Nigeria Leads the Charge
Nigeria took centre stage in 2024’s economic developments with the operational success of the Dangote Refinery. Africa’s largest refinery, with a capacity to process 650,000 barrels of oil daily, represents a game-changing moment for the continent. The facility not only reduces Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuels but also strengthens regional energy security.
Dangote’s refinery aligns with Africa’s broader ambitions to industrialise and reduce dependency on raw material exports. It symbolises private sector ingenuity and Africa’s ability to deliver large-scale infrastructure projects. The impact extends beyond Nigeria, benefitting neighbouring economies through trade and job creation.
Energy transitions across the region continued gaining momentum. Renewables became a focal point, with substantial investments in solar and wind projects in South Africa, Kenya, and Namibia. Governments are now balancing between fossil fuel-driven growth and sustainable energy solutions, recognising the long-term benefits of green investment.
Infrastructure as a Driver of Growth
Infrastructure development remained pivotal for sub-Saharan Africa’s economic prospects in 2024. Countries prioritised transport, energy, and digital infrastructure to address long-standing gaps. Major road networks and rail projects in Tanzania and Zambia have begun unlocking trade corridors, reducing logistics costs, and improving market access for businesses.
Equally notable were advances in digital infrastructure. Investments in broadband expansion across Ghana, Angola, and parts of West Africa drove internet penetration. These developments empowered small businesses, improved access to education, and enhanced regional competitiveness.
While challenges like funding shortfalls and rising debt persist, strategic public-private partnerships (PPPs) showcased progress. Investors remained cautiously optimistic about Africa’s potential to bridge infrastructure deficits through collaboration and innovation.
Technology and Innovation: The Rising Frontier
Technology continued to play a transformative role across sub-Saharan Africa this year. Fintech startups, particularly in Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa, attracted record-breaking funding despite global venture capital slowdowns. These innovators expanded financial inclusion, offering banking and credit solutions to underserved populations.
In agriculture, technological advancements helped tackle food insecurity. Smart irrigation systems and climate-resilient crops improved yields in drought-prone areas. Agritech firms gained traction, driving productivity and reducing post-harvest losses.
AI applications also emerged across healthcare, education, and logistics. These innovations reflect Africa’s evolving digital landscape, positioning the continent as a rising tech hub in the global economy.
Regional Trade: The AfCFTA Gains Momentum
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) continued shaping Africa’s economic integration in 2024. Countries moved closer to implementing tariff reductions and harmonising trade policies. As barriers began to ease, intra-African trade expanded, particularly in manufactured goods and agricultural products.
South Africa and Egypt emerged as key trade facilitators, leveraging their manufacturing capabilities. West Africa’s agricultural exports also benefited from improved logistics and policy alignment. Despite implementation challenges, the AfCFTA demonstrated its potential to boost regional supply chains, enhance competitiveness, and attract investment.
Debt and Fiscal Pressures: Balancing Reform and Growth
Debt sustainability remained a concern for several African economies. Countries such as Zambia and Ghana continued restructuring debt under IMF-supported programmes. These efforts aim to create fiscal breathing space, enabling governments to prioritise growth-oriented investments.
Encouragingly, fiscal reforms gained traction in resource-rich nations. Governments diversified revenue sources, reducing reliance on commodity cycles. Initiatives to enhance tax systems and curb illicit financial flows delivered positive results, strengthening domestic resource mobilisation.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s resilience amid debt challenges underscores its capacity for reform. By prioritising transparency, prudent borrowing, and economic diversification, the region can foster long-term fiscal stability.
An Optimistic Look Forward
While sub-Saharan Africa faced crises and challenges in 2024, the year also revealed reasons for cautious optimism. Historic investments, particularly in energy and technology, underscore Africa’s progress toward industrialisation and innovation. Infrastructure projects are unlocking new opportunities, while policy reforms continue to attract investors seeking growth markets.
Africa’s potential lies not just in its resources but in its people. Youthful populations, entrepreneurial ecosystems, and regional collaboration provide the foundation for sustained growth. The setbacks of today can pave the way for transformative change, provided countries stay committed to inclusive governance, economic diversification, and strategic investments.
As we reflect on 2024, it is clear that sub-Saharan Africa is at an inflection point. The road ahead will require resilience, collaboration, and innovation. Yet, with every challenge comes an opportunity—and Africa’s trajectory remains one of promise.
Fabio Scala, Cav OSI
