Analysts at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) have given a positive assessment of sovereign rating trends on the continent in the first half of 2026, a period in which upgrades outnumbered downgrades, according to a report published on Monday, 14 September, by the Portuguese news agency Lusa.
“Rating upgrades outpaced downgrades, while positive outlook revisions exceeded negative ones,” the economists wrote, noting that this trend suggests progress on reforms and improved macroeconomic management have helped strengthen credit dynamics across a number of African economies.
Nevertheless, fiscal vulnerabilities, financing needs, and external risks continue to weigh on some economies.
According to the African Peer Review Mechanism’s semi-annual analysis of African ratings, sovereign credit assessments in the first half of 2026 reflected stronger domestic fundamentals against a backdrop of heightened international uncertainty.
“Growth, fiscal reforms, and debt management efforts” contributed to improvements in some countries. In others, however, geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, high debt service costs, and tighter financing conditions continued to weigh on assessments.
Five countries record improvements
Cape Verde, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa each recorded an upgrade to their sovereign credit rating from at least one of the three major rating agencies — Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch — reflecting an improved assessment of their capacity to meet obligations to creditors.
In contrast, Botswana and Mozambique recorded the only sovereign credit rating downgrades during the period.
Gabon, Mali, and Senegal, meanwhile, experienced negative outlook revisions on their ratings, linked to fiscal pressures, financing risks, and concerns over debt sustainability.
“Overall, the rating actions recorded in the first half of 2026 point to a gradual shift in the factors determining sovereign creditworthiness in Africa,” the economists stated.
According to the analysis, at the end of 2025, rating trends were primarily driven by debt-related concerns. In the first half of 2026, the focus shifted to the credibility of economic policies and governments’ capacity to sustain reforms over time.
“Rating agencies increasingly rewarded countries that maintained fiscal consolidation, improved debt management, strengthened external resilience, and demonstrated consistent policy implementation,” the report stated.
By contrast, countries with persistent fiscal weaknesses, refinancing pressures, governance challenges, or high dependence on a narrow commodity base continued to face negative rating pressure.
For UNECA, sustaining the pace of reforms, reinforcing institutional credibility, and building economic resilience will be fundamental factors in the future trajectory of credit assessments across the continent.
Africa recovers market access
In the first six months of 2026, nine African countries, including Angola, tapped international markets to raise more than US$14 billion.
UNECA said this reflects a gradual improvement in market access and strong investor demand for some African sovereign issuers, accompanied by refinancing operations and liability management exercises.
The economists described this development as significant, as it demonstrates a gradual recovery in African countries’ access to international markets and a growing appetite among investors for issuers perceived as credible.
However, the return to markets also highlights the “substantial refinancing needs” that continue to weigh on several economies across the continent.
Source: Diário Económico
Original article: https://www.diarioeconomico.co.mz/2026/09/15/mundo/africa/africa-subidas-de-rating-superam-descidas-no-primeiro-semestre/
