The African Development Bank (AfDB) projects that Africa’s economy will grow by only 3.9% this year, 0.2 percentage points below its initial forecast, though still an acceleration compared to last year’s 3.3% growth. The information comes from the Annual African Economic Outlook report, released during the bank’s annual meeting in Côte d’Ivoire.
The report explains that the lowered forecast for this year—which covers the economies of all 54 member states—is mainly due to the shocks caused by new trade tariffs imposed by the United States (US).
The bank, Africa’s largest development lender, with $318 billion in capital, also cut its 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, down to 4.0%, citing the same tariff-related uncertainty. “Since January 2025, the world has experienced additional shocks, exacerbating an already complex global macroeconomic environment. These include a series of new tariffs imposed by the US and retaliatory measures announced and implemented by its trading partners,” the AfDB stated in the report.
According to the bank, this turmoil is likely to weaken global demand due to the resulting economic slowdown, reducing Africa’s exports to the rest of the world. “The fluidity of the situation and the evolving uncertainty mean that the impact on growth will depend on the decision regarding the 90-day tariff pause announced by the US for Liberation Day,” it adds.
Although the US accounts for only 5% of Africa’s annual global trade, the continent has already been affected by falling commodity prices and the downward revaluation of financial assets.
The projected growth across the region this year will be supported by growth rates above 5% in 21 economies, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal expected to grow by at least 7%, the lender noted.
Source: Reuters
