In a global environment marked by rising levels of uncertainty, considering unlikely yet plausible scenarios is essential for investors. Byron Wien and Joe Zidle of Blackstone introduced the concept of the “10 Surprises” — events they believe have a greater than 50% chance of occurring, despite being viewed as unlikely by market consensus. It is in this spirit that I present ten possible surprises that could shape the global economy and Mozambique’s outlook in 2026.
1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates into a broader European dimension, marked by attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to distribution chains. This new phase directly affects the global supply of several products, pushing oil prices above USD 100 per barrel. Global inflation regains momentum, prompting a renewed flight to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, which returns to levels seen in early 2025. This scenario imposes additional challenges on more vulnerable economies like ours, which face renewed external pressures.
2. In 2026, the world experiences a significant rise in inflation driven by a combination of factors, including higher energy commodity prices (oil and natural gas) and currency depreciation across several emerging economies. The continuation of protectionist policies, with more trade barriers and less international cooperation, leads to product shortages and higher production costs, further fuelling the inflationary spiral. Together, these forces create a challenging environment for major central banks.
3. A sharp correction in the valuations of AI-related technology stocks triggers a global financial crisis, generating widespread risk aversion among investors. The crisis results in tighter international liquidity, delaying financing for strategic projects, including liquefied natural gas (LNG). This slowdown causes LNG projects in northern Mozambique to advance at a slower pace, creating additional fiscal and social risks for the Mozambican economy, which is left with limited room to mitigate negative impacts.
4. An unexpected trade truce between the United States and China reduces reciprocal tariffs and calms markets, creating a more stable environment for international trade. Although tariffs and measures affecting third parties are not fully eliminated, easing tensions between the two largest economies brings significant benefits. The 16% tariff applied to certain Mozambican minerals remains subject to administrative decisions and specific regimes (AGOA), but the truce provides an indirect gain in global competitiveness, supporting economic recovery and greater business predictability.
“Anticipating the unexpected does not eliminate risks, but it reduces vulnerability. In a world where external shocks rapidly spill over into fragile economies, incorporating out-of-consensus scenarios becomes an indispensable exercise in prudence.”
5. To curb inflation driven by IMF-mandated currency depreciation, the Bank of Mozambique (BdM) raises the MIMO policy rate to unprecedented levels, exceeding 25%. This sharp increase in benchmark rates raises financing costs and reduces credit availability in the economy. Despite these challenges, Mozambique shows strong resilience and begins to benefit from a marked increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), helping to stabilise the metical and channel funds toward the long-sought industrialisation of the country.
6. After years without a major climatic shock, Mozambique is once again hit by a severe natural disaster that destroys roads, ports and logistics depots, disrupting food and fuel transport and driving up prices while increasing fiscal pressure. The budget deficit surges to 15%, reflecting the devastating economic impact and delaying both private and public projects. Coastal communities face food insecurity, requiring an urgent international response, with the United States channelling aid to the country in the aftermath.
7. Pressured by deficits and unsustainable long-term debt servicing costs, African countries — including Mozambique — join a coordinated mechanism to extend debt maturities. This immediate relief strengthens liquidity and stabilises spreads, reducing the risk of disorderly defaults. However, following the restructuring, financial markets face a period of dysfunction with limited access to financing. The Mozambican government responds by launching a massive investment programme through public-private partnerships and privatisation of state-owned enterprises, creating unprecedented economic dynamism in the region.
8. Rapid population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa results in thousands of new adults reaching working age without access to jobs and living in precarious conditions. The potential “demographic dividend” turns into a “demographic burden,” undermining social stability across the region. The lack of economic opportunities fuels dissatisfaction and social unrest, creating fertile ground for coup attempts in neighbouring countries such as Tanzania, Malawi and Zimbabwe, requiring a coordinated response to promote regional stability.
9. As LNG projects advance, a new wave of professionals and foreign investment arrives in Mozambique. This influx of capital has a direct impact on demand for housing and office space, stimulating the construction sector. The real estate market gains momentum and, given limited supply, experiences a sharp rise in prices and a wave of euphoria similar to the peak seen during the arrival of Vale S.A. This surge in demand is accompanied by unexpected interest in buildings in downtown Maputo, which becomes the city’s new hotspot, revitalising the area as a dynamic business hub.
10. In an environment of global volatility, investors seek more stable returns. With positive signs emerging from African debt restructuring and a return to fiscal discipline, Mozambique’s sovereign Eurobonds attract investor attention. A well-received restructuring and improved public finance management lead major rating agencies to upgrade sovereign risk to a level above “junk.” This renewed demand opens a new avenue for external financing, diversifying funding sources and reducing reliance on costly domestic borrowing.
Anticipating the unexpected does not eliminate risks, but it reduces vulnerability. In a world where external shocks quickly spread to fragile economies, incorporating out-of-consensus scenarios is an essential exercise in prudence. The surprises outlined here do not aim to predict 2026, but rather to encourage broader and more realistic reflection on the challenges and opportunities that may emerge without warning. Preparing for the improbable is, in today’s uncertain context, an integral part of responsible economic management.
