For those living in the digital age, June 25, 1975, may seem like a distant date — and for a people where 90% were born after Independence, it truly is. Fortunately, many of us can still rely on the 10% who lived through that moment and, with their emotions intact, continue to share stories of the dreams, aspirations, and immense potential of a future that was finally in our hands.
But the task was herculean: with almost no technical staff, no administrative experience, and no structured economy. We emerged from nearly 500 years of occupation without a collective identity, without any national fabric to unite us, and with a literacy rate of only 7%.
Little did they know that this newly conquered destiny was about to be delayed — that we would soon plunge into another tragedy. Sixteen years of internal conflict inflicted among brothers. Yes, we had our own currency, an anthem, and a flag; we could tell our story. But we still lacked the most essential thing: peace.
As with nearly all the topics we’ve covered in this column, we aim to contextualize without politicizing. It’s easy — even convenient — to speak in macroeconomic terms and deem the 16 years of war as “lost.” Much harder is to remember the human lives, the interrupted dreams, and the homes destroyed.
The civil war, from 1977 to 1992, not only severely delayed economic growth but also fragmented the social fabric, created regional distrust, and compromised institutional development. It drastically shortened the window of opportunity to consolidate the State and prepare the country for sustainable development. Meanwhile, the world was changing. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 ended the Cold War and ushered in a new global order with economic and political demands for which we were unprepared. What followed were global financial crises, for which our fragile institutions were fertile ground.
Structural Weaknesses
Unlike smaller or more homogeneous countries, Mozambique — vast, diverse, and young — faces unique challenges. Weak institutions, uncertainty in property rights, slow justice, systemic corruption, and lack of accountability undermine any attempt at structured growth.
Low agricultural productivity remains one of the main barriers to rural development and food security. Although the country has seen growth in cereal and root crop production, according to the latest 2024 Economic and Social Performance Report from the Ministry of Planning, per capita consumption levels of basic foods such as milk and meat remain far below the regional average.
With only 11 liters of milk per person per year, many Mozambican children grow up without access to basic nutrition, which affects their development. Maize and rice production, with 2.8 million tons and 181,000 tons respectively, yield only 1 ton and 0.6 tons per hectare — far below what’s achieved in countries with structured agriculture, where average yields range between 6 to 10 tons per hectare for rice, and 8 to 12 for maize. At this rate, even with all the land in the world, we won’t be able to feed our population or generate surpluses for development.
Additionally, access to electricity — a basic condition for progress — is still limited and expensive compared to neighboring countries. Although the access rate rose to 60.1% in 2024, connection costs, tariffs per kWh, and supply quality remain among the highest and least reliable in the region. Countries like Zambia and Malawi, with lower installed capacity, manage to offer more competitive rates for domestic and productive use. Electricity, being essential for industrialization and agro-processing, must be central to an energy democratization policy.
Since the first multiparty elections in 1994, the country registered an average annual growth of 7% until 2015 — a remarkable achievement considering the starting point. But growth alone does not guarantee transformation. Rwanda, after the 1994 genocide, focused on reconciliation, technology, and institutional reform, growing at 8% a year. Ethiopia invested in infrastructure and agro-industry and surpassed 10%. Vietnam, with recent war and limited resources, became a light industrial powerhouse. What sets them apart from us is not the past — it’s what they did with the future.
What differentiates these countries from ours is not just the growth rate, but the depth of institutional reforms, the clear investment in human capital, and the ability to generate sustainable gains from their territories. This is the challenge we face: to do more with what we already have — and to do it better.
The New World Won’t Wait
We are now living through an era of unprecedented technological acceleration. Automation, artificial intelligence, and new production models are redefining the world of work. Many of the jobs of the future — or even the present — simply do not yet exist in Mozambique. And when they do appear, we often lack qualified labor to fill them.
We must urgently acknowledge this mismatch. If we continue training young people for a world that no longer exists, we will not only waste talent but condemn entire generations to economic irrelevance. This is both a moral and strategic failure. With each technological revolution the world undergoes without us, the gap between our potential and our reality deepens. We need a radical transformation of the education system, one that goes beyond formal instruction and fosters critical skills, creativity, digital fluency, and adaptability. We must redesign technical and vocational education, valuing dignified work that is useful to society, and create real bridges between education and industry.
But human capital is not built with schools alone. It is built with dignity — with basic healthcare, nutrition, decent housing, and security. And, above all, it is built with role models — with leaders who inspire, teachers who teach with vocation, and parents who have hope to pass on to their children.
The Mozambique That Can Be
The time for rehearsal is over.
With a population projected to reach 89 million by 2075, Mozambique will become the 25th most populous country in the world. We will be one of Africa’s youngest and most populous nations — with one million new children each year to feed, vaccinate, and educate. Today, GDP per capita is around USD 600. To reach middle-income status, we must grow by 7% annually over the next decades — and ensure that this growth results in real improvements in quality of life. The manufacturing sector remains a tiny slice of GDP. We export raw materials and import added value. This logic must be reversed. Natural gas and strategic minerals should catalyze local industrialization — not just serve as volatile tax revenue sources. Our transport networks — railways, roads, and bridges — still reflect the colonial-era priorities of Lisbon and must be redesigned for Chicualacuala, Guruè, Machipanda, Zambia, the DRC, and beyond. We need to turn our focus inward — and to our neighbors who depend on our coast to be competitive in global markets.
We need functioning special economic zones, partnerships with strategic investors who share risk and value, and infrastructure that serves production, not just extraction.
To paraphrase an old statesman: “The world does not eat minerals or gas; the world eats food,” and agribusiness must take center stage in job creation. With fertile land, water, and a favorable climate, Mozambique could become the breadbasket of the region. But this requires access to credit, rural extension services, silos, cold storage, logistics, and markets. Small producers must be organized into modern cooperatives and connected to regional and global supply chains.
In tourism, the coastline and national parks remain under-explored. We lack a coordinated policy, quality training, and effective international promotion. Countries like Tanzania have shown that it is possible to build dynamic tourism industries with real impact on employment and the balance of payments.
There are inspiring examples: Vietnam became a global hub for light manufacturing. Ethiopia became a reference in textile exports. Uruguay invested in agro-industry and eco-tourism, and Indonesia turned a raw-material export model into a global copper monopoly. Mozambique can — and must — chart its own course, but it cannot afford to ignore what works in other contexts.
We must also revisit our cooperation models and diversify strategic partnerships. In previous articles, we highlighted unconventional partnerships like those of Vietnam with Japan and South Korea, and Ethiopia with Turkey and China. Now is the time to make international cooperation a lever for transformation — not an extension of dependency.
The Leadership Challenge
It all starts with leadership — with leadership that recognizes the gravity of current challenges: institutional dysfunction, systemic corruption, a youth with no prospects — and that has the courage to break the cycle of broken promises, systemic mediocrity, and prioritizes the common good. With vision to plan long-term, but humility and pragmatism to serve the present.
There can be no transformation without rupture — but ruptures must be guided by purpose, not resentment. We must break away from state capture, clientelism, and lack of accountability.
Institutions exist to serve, and the State is only legitimate if it is just. Politics is only justified if it generates hope. And in a world where electorates are increasingly demanding, leadership must inspire, unite, and protect.
Conclusion: Progress With Courage
The challenge for the next 50 years is this: transform potential into tangible progress. Make Mozambique a benchmark in Africa. And do it through the strength of our own steps. Today, we have a President who has fully lived Mozambican identity — who felt the war, survived captivity, and knows the weight of freedom. That matters. With each passing day, the 10% who lived June 25 are leaving us. And like the Israelites who wandered for 40 years after 400 of captivity, we too have walked long enough. It’s time to enter — with courage — our Promised Land.
Let’s not wait for the 26th to begin.
Source: Diário Económico
