World LNG Report Places Mozambique at Centre of Next Supply Wave • 360 Mozambique

The global liquefied natural gas market is entering an unprecedented phase of expansion, driven by rising demand for energy security, the emergence of new projects, and intensifying competition among exporting nations. In this landscape, Mozambique is emerging as one of the geographies with the greatest potential in the next wave of global LNG supply.

The World LNG Report 2026, published by the International Gas Union (IGU), places Mozambique among the countries with the highest projected growth capacity in the sector, highlighting a portfolio of LNG projects with a combined capacity of approximately 45 million tonnes per year. This is the largest project portfolio in Africa, concentrated primarily in the Rovuma Basin and linked to development opportunities in Areas 1 and 4.

Mozambique’s position is gaining relevance in a market where LNG has moved beyond its role as an energy commodity to assume a strategic function in geopolitics, supply security, the reconfiguration of trade routes, and industrial competitiveness. For the country, the challenge is no longer simply about possessing internationally significant gas reserves, but about converting that potential into regular production, sustainable public revenues, the development of national capabilities, and new value chains.

According to the IGU report, global LNG trade reached 436.98 million tonnes in 2025, representing growth of 25.74 million tonnes, equivalent to 6.3%, compared with the previous year. The market connected 24 exporting countries to 50 import markets.

The expansion was driven primarily by increased production in the United States, Qatar, Canada, Malaysia, Angola, and Nigeria, while European demand returned to growth amid the need to replace part of pipeline gas supplies and strengthen energy security.

At the same time, global liquefaction capacity reached 524.5 million tonnes per year at the end of 2025, following an increase of 30.1 million tonnes over the course of the year. The commissioning of new units in the United States, Canada, Mauritania, Senegal, and Russia confirms the upward trajectory of global supply.

This environment presents an opportunity for Mozambique, but also raises the bar for competitiveness. Demand for new sources of gas remains relevant, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia, but competition will intensify among producers capable of securing financing, infrastructure, long-term contracts, and predictable execution timelines.

The IGU identifies Africa as one of the regions with the greatest scope to increase LNG production, with approximately 121.1 million tonnes per year of proposed capacity. Within that figure, Mozambique stands out as holder of the largest project portfolio, estimated at around 45 million tonnes per year. This potential stems primarily from the development of Area 4, which encompasses the Coral Sul, Coral Norte, and Rovuma LNG projects, as well as the Mozambique LNG project in Area 1, and other potential offshore expansion opportunities in the Rovuma Basin.

Despite the scale of the portfolio, the report cautions that this proposed capacity represents a technical and commercial potential that remains contingent on final investment decisions, financing, sale and purchase agreements, the trajectory of international prices, infrastructure development, and operational stability.

The most concrete advancement recorded in 2025 was the approval of the Coral Norte FLNG project, with a capacity of 3.6 million tonnes per year, located approximately 55 kilometres offshore in Area 4 of the Rovuma Basin.

According to the IGU, the unit will be a replica of Coral Sul and will use subsea wells connected directly to the floating platform, where gas will be processed, liquefied, stored, and transferred to carrier vessels. The offshore model reduces exposure to onshore security constraints and infrastructure limitations, allows the country to leverage experience gained with Coral Sul, and mitigates some of the risks associated with the execution of large-scale projects.

Coral Sul, with a nominal capacity of 3.4 million tonnes per year, began operations in October 2022 and operated at near-full utilisation during 2024 and 2025. With Coral Norte, Mozambique’s floating LNG capacity is expected to exceed seven million tonnes per year.

Despite the progress of the floating LNG model, the true scale of Mozambique’s ambition remains dependent on onshore projects. The IGU report notes that the Rovuma LNG and Mozambique LNG projects remained delayed due to the security situation in Cabo Delgado.

Rovuma LNG, located in Area 4, is presented with a potential capacity of 18 million tonnes per year, in a revised configuration that may be more modular than initial plans. Mozambique LNG, in Area 1, continues to represent a central component of the country’s future export capacity.

The realisation of these projects could profoundly alter Mozambique’s position in global energy trade. However, it will depend on lasting security, financier confidence, execution capacity, regulatory predictability, social stability, and effective coordination between investors, the state, and local communities.

The World LNG Report 2026 reinforces that Mozambique holds a potentially significant position in the next generation of global gas supply. Consolidating that position will require progress on offshore developments, a resumption of onshore projects, and greater national participation in supply chains.