The consultancy Eurasia considered this Thursday that the declaration of `force majeure’ by the French oil company Total regarding its operation in the north of the country will not lead the Government to significantly change its approach to the conflict.
“The Government’s approach to the insurgency has been to treat the problem as a security issue, rather than a development issue, and that remains the fundamental issue,” the analysts write in a commentary on the French oil company’s decision.
“The declaration of `force majeure’ by Total is unlikely to change the government’s approach to the insurgency; while Total should not abandon the project completely, declaring `force majeure’ means that work is unlikely to resume for at least another year,” the analysts point out in a commentary on Total’s decision.
In the document, sent to clients, these analysts write that “consequently, the expected boost to government revenues from the liquefied natural gas project will be delayed by at least two years, worsening the outlook for the Mozambican economy.
In addition, they point out, President Filipe Nyusi “continues to resist outside intervention in the conflict that goes beyond training and sharing intelligence,” although the deployment of troops from the Southern African Development Community “is increasingly likely, even if it is not likely to support enough to change the course of the conflict.
The government is not likely to change its approach as it does not want to appear weak to its opponents within the party, who are mostly hardline military
For these analysts, the Government’s approach is the main impediment to resolving the insurgency in the north of the country, which threatens to postpone the country’s economic development prospects.
“Local discontent fomented by underdevelopment, especially among the ethnic minority of the Mwani in Cabo Delgado, has given gas to the insurgency, and yet the Government has failed to put development initiatives as a priority,” the analysts argue, exemplifying with the under-budgeting and slow operations of the Northern Integrated Development Agency.
“The government is unlikely to change its approach as it does not want to appear weak to its opponents within the party, who are mostly hardline military,” the Eurasia analysts conclude.
The oil company Total announced on Monday that it had declared reasons of `force majeure’ to suspend operations in northern Mozambique, which could delay the project by months or even years, hampering the development prospects not only of the region, but of the country as a whole due to the huge tax revenues the government was counting on to support the increased costs of servicing its debt after 2024.
Armed groups have terrorized Cabo Delgado since 2017, with some attacks being claimed by the `jihadist` group Islamic State, in a wave of violence that has led to more than 2,500 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project, and 714,000 displaced people, according to the government.
The most recent attack occurred on March 24 against the village of Palma, causing dozens of deaths and injuries, in a still ongoing assessment.
The authorities regained control of the village, but the attack led the oil company Total to abandon indefinitely the site of the gas project scheduled to start production in 2024, valued at 20 billion euros, and on which many of Mozambique’s economic growth expectations for the next decade are anchored.
