Hydrocarbon production in Mozambique is expected to register a 9% drop in 2026 compared with current levels, according to supporting documents for the Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE) for 2026, currently under parliamentary review.
The reduction is attributed to the scheduled shutdown of the Coral Sul platform, off the Rovuma Basin, and the gradual decline in natural gas production from the Pande and Temane fields in Inhambane province.
According to Lusa, the budget proposal details that the contraction will affect almost all hydrocarbon segments, with a 3% decrease estimated for natural gas production and up to 32% for light oil, one of the least significant derivatives in the national production structure.
The Coral Sul field, operated by the Italian multinational Eni, is the only project currently in operation in the Rovuma Basin. Its capacity is expected to double with the launch of the Coral Norte unit from 2028 onwards. This investment, valued at 7.2 billion dollars (458 billion meticais), will allow for combined production of 7 million tonnes per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Meanwhile, the Mozambique LNG project (Area 1), led by TotalEnergies, and Rovuma LNG (Area 4), led by ExxonMobil, remain in preparatory phases. The first, valued at 20 billion dollars (1.2 trillion meticais), aims to begin operations in 2029 with a capacity of 13 million tonnes per year, while the second, with an estimated investment of 30 billion dollars (1.9 trillion meticais), is expected to start only in the following decade, with annual production of 18 million tonnes.
However, production levels in the southern fields of the country have been declining sharply. The Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Cristóvão Chume, acknowledged in October that the Pande and Temane gas reservoirs show signs of depletion after more than 20 years of continuous extraction.
“We must find more gas and ensure continuity of supply. There is plenty of room for new discoveries, but it is a high-risk investment,” he stated at the time, noting that exploration and potential-assessment activities are underway involving new partners.
The state-owned oil company, Companhia Moçambicana de Hidrocarbonetos (CMH), shares this concern. In its 2024–25 annual report, the company warns of the “sharp decline” in production fields and the need to maintain current operational levels. CMH, 70% owned by the National Hydrocarbons Company (ENH), is the main Mozambican entity involved in production projects in partnership with South Africa’s Sasol.
The recovery and expansion of national hydrocarbon production thus continue to depend on a balance between large-scale investments in the Rovuma Basin and the replenishment of reserves in currently active fields.
