The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global oil demand to peak “before the end of the decade”, according to an annual report published today, which for the first time mentions a peak during this period.
“The transition to a clean energy economy is accelerating, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
In the 2023 Oil Report, a five-year view of the market, the IEA estimates that global oil demand will continue to grow, but that growth “is expected to slow significantly by 2028”.
This is sooner than expected: in the previous World Energy Outlook report, published in 2022, the Paris-based IEA, an arm of the OECD, saw “global oil demand recovering despite high prices, peaking and stabilising after 2035”.
According to these new five-year medium-term forecasts, “the use of oil as a transport fuel is expected to decline” after 2026.
But this decline should be slowed by “burgeoning” demand for petrochemicals and strong consumption growth in emerging economies, which will “more than offset” the contraction in demand in advanced economies, the IEA stresses.
“High energy prices” and “security of supply issues highlighted by the global energy crisis”, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, are accelerating “the transition to cleaner energy technologies”, the IEA stresses.
“Based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will increase by 6% between 2022 and 2028, reaching 105.7 million barrels per day – supported by strong demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors,” IEA experts write.
“Despite this cumulative increase, annual demand growth is expected to slow from 2.4 million barrels per day this year to just 0.4 million barrels per day in 2028, pointing to a peak in demand,” they note.
Lusa
