The Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry in Mozambique represents a new wave of major opportunities for the country’s economic transformation in recent decades.
But could there be a parallel between LNG and coal? When Vale arrived in Mozambique in the mid-2000s, the country faced extremely adverse economic and social conditions, with low income levels, limited workforce skills, restricted access to basic services, and underdeveloped infrastructure. In this context, the development of the Moatize coal project, in Tete, represented a significant turning point. The investment mobilized generated thousands of direct and indirect jobs, boosted local supply chains, and produced a strong multiplier effect across the economy, with particular impact in Tete province, but also along strategic logistics corridors such as Beira and Nacala, with spillover effects even reaching Malawi.
During the peak activity period:
- The mining sector accounted for more than 10% of Mozambique’s exports;
- Thousands of Mozambican workers received specialized technical and operational training;
- Critical infrastructure was developed, including railway lines such as the Nacala Logistics Corridor, which also included a deep-water port — in addition to integration with the general cargo port and the Beira corridor.
A particularly relevant aspect was the impact of the coal logistics transition from the Beira Corridor to the Nacala Corridor following the completion of the new railway line. Vale’s decision to concentrate exports in Nacala was essentially economic and operational, allowing greater rail availability, higher capacity, and fewer technical constraints. However, this shift also had significant effects on the economic dynamics of the Beira Corridor, reducing cargo volumes, port activity, and associated flows, while simultaneously accelerating Nacala’s development as a new logistics and industrial hub. This episode clearly illustrates how large structural projects redistribute economic opportunities across territories, creating winners and losers, and reinforcing the importance of public policies that anticipate and manage such transitions. Between 2004, when operations began, and April 2022, when the asset was sold to India’s Vulcan Group, led by Naveen Jindal, there was substantial progress in infrastructure, technical capacity building, supplier chain development, and skills transfer. Vale played a decisive role in training Mozambican workers and service providers, most of whom had no prior experience in industrial mining, creating a human capital base that outlived the project itself and left concrete, lasting effects in both directly and indirectly affected regions.
Despite the challenges and legitimate criticisms associated with the project, particularly regarding environmental issues and resettlements, Vale’s experience demonstrates that large-scale investments can generate lasting structural effects, especially when accompanied by appropriate public policies. I personally had the opportunity to participate in this journey as CFO (Chief Financial Officer) of the company for nearly ten years and witnessed firsthand the significant and positive transformative impact the project brought, both economically and socially.
LNG: A Second Opportunity for National Transformation
Today, history is repeating itself with LNG. Industry giants such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies carry a responsibility that goes beyond immediate profit. Just as Vale played a transformative role, these natural gas projects do not only have economic impact: they carry a broad social responsibility that directly and indirectly affects nearly 35 million Mozambicans. This is not just about communities in Cabo Delgado or areas directly involved in the projects. It is about the systemic effect that investments of this scale can have across the entire country, from Rovuma to Maputo.
At the same time, international experience shows that natural resources alone do not guarantee development. In our article published in the September 2025 edition of Economia & Mercado, we shared the story of how the first natural gas liquefaction plant in the Oman brought prosperity and economic development to the city of Sur and a small fishing village in the mid-1990s, becoming one of the pillars of the largest transformation in that country’s history.
Another decisive factor was how those resources were integrated into a coherent national strategy. Vale’s case in Tete shows that, despite limitations and legitimate criticisms, large projects can generate jobs, skills development, infrastructure, and meaningful multiplier effects. LNG has the potential to go far beyond that, due to its scale and the different types of industries that can be developed — whether directly through gas or through its derivatives. In Oman, investment focused on extraction, liquefaction, and export, enabling value maximization and the creation of internal capabilities.
The Cost of Delay: More Than Numbers, Lost Time
Each year of delay in implementing LNG projects represents more than postponed fiscal revenues. It represents lost time in combating poverty, creating opportunities for young people, professional training, developing technical and specialized skills, and building a minimum industrial base for Mozambique’s economic independence.
For companies such as TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil, the debate should not be reduced exclusively to financial risk metrics or international price cycles. There is inevitably a human responsibility dimension associated with operating in a country with such deep structural fragilities and, at the same time, such significant natural resources.
“Industry giants such as Exxon and Total have a responsibility that goes beyond immediate profit. Just as Vale played a transformative role, these natural gas projects do not only have economic impact: they carry a broad social responsibility.”
This does not mean ignoring security risks or return requirements. It means recognizing that important strategic decisions need to be made today, unlocking Mozambique’s development path over the coming decades.
The Central Question: Development or Enclave?
The greatest risk of LNG in Mozambique is not technical or geological, but strategic. Without clear integration of natural gas into a broader industrial policy, the country risks reproducing an enclave model: high exports, significant fiscal revenues, but weak structural economic transformation.
To avoid this scenario, it is essential to:
- Integrate LNG into a national industrialization strategy;
- Develop local supply and service chains;
- Use gas as a foundation for energy, fertilizers, and heavy industry;
- Ensure transparent and strategic governance of future revenues.
LNG should be seen as an instrument of economic transformation, not an end in itself.
What Can Be Expected from 2026?
The year 2026 will not be remembered as the peak LNG production year in Mozambique, but it could — and should — be remembered as a year of strategic decision. A year in which the country unequivocally confirms whether its energy potential will finally be converted into structured economic development or whether it will remain trapped in cycles of expectation and delay.
In practical terms, 2026 will be decisive if several critical milestones are clearly and consistently observed: the continuity and stabilization of existing FLNG operations, the definitive entry of Coral Norte FLNG into the execution phase, irreversible progress in restarting the Afungi project, and the final investment decision (FID) for the Area 4 onshore project.
More than additional export volumes, what will truly be under evaluation in 2026 is Mozambique’s credibility as a long-term investment destination. The increasing mobilization of national and international suppliers, rising direct and indirect employment, strengthening institutional and regulatory frameworks, and effective alignment between government, operators, and international financiers will be concrete signals that the country has entered a new phase of strategic maturity.
Thus, 2026 will be less about producing gas and more about proving decision-making capacity. It will be the year Mozambique shows whether it can transform its vast energy potential into institutional confidence, strategic predictability, and consistent execution. LNG remains a historic opportunity; what is now at stake is the discipline, coordination, and vision required to realize it.
