The Mozambican government is projecting average annual economic growth of 4.9% from 2027, driven by liquefied natural gas (LNG) megaprojects, rising to 9.5% in 2029 as new production units come on stream, according to information released on Tuesday, 7 July, by the Lusa news agency.
The forecast is contained in the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework 2027–2029, approved on Tuesday by the Council of Ministers, which will serve as the basis for drafting the Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE) for 2027. The details were provided by Council of Ministers spokesperson Inocêncio Impissa at a press briefing in Maputo following the cabinet meeting.
Impissa described the document as “the principal instrument of macro-fiscal and budgetary programming for the state, establishing fiscal strategy, macroeconomic and fiscal projections, and overall expenditure ceilings over a three-year horizon.”
According to Impissa, the framework is designed to “anchor the preparation of the PESOE, reinforcing discipline, predictability and transparency in the management of public finances.” He added that “the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework 2027–2029 establishes a prudent, realistic and feasible fiscal framework, oriented towards macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of public finances.”
The government also anticipates “a gradual recovery of economic activity in a context still marked by external challenges, including restrictive financial conditions, commodity price volatility and climate risks,” Impissa said.
“The medium-term fiscal framework 2027–2029 establishes a prudent, realistic and feasible fiscal framework, oriented towards macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of public finances.” — Inocêncio Impissa, Council of Ministers Spokesperson
“In the baseline scenario, real GDP is expected to grow by an average of approximately 4.9% per year with the contribution of gas, and 2.1% without gas, and could reach 9.5% in 2029 with the entry into production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects,” Impissa stated.
Mozambique has approved three LNG megaprojects to develop the Rovuma Basin’s gas reserves — ranked among the largest in the world — located offshore in the northern province of Cabo Delgado. These include the Mozambique LNG project, led by TotalEnergies, which is currently in a restart phase, and the Rovuma LNG project, led by ExxonMobil, with a planned capacity of 18 million tonnes per year and an estimated investment of US$30 billion, which is still awaiting a final investment decision. Both projects are situated on the Afungi peninsula.
These are joined by the Coral Sul FLNG project, operated by Italy’s Eni, which has been producing approximately seven million tonnes per year (mtpa) since 2022. That capacity is expected to be expanded from 2028 with the development of the Coral Norte FLNG project, at an estimated investment of US$7.2 billion.
The government’s framework also projects a gradual decline in inflation, which is expected to ease from 8.7% in 2026 to approximately 5.5% in 2029.
“From a fiscal standpoint, the approved framework reflects the government’s commitment to the gradual consolidation of public finances,” Impissa said.
To that end, the government intends to strengthen “the mobilisation of domestic revenues, the improvement of public expenditure efficiency and the containment of structural pressures, particularly the wage bill and debt servicing costs. The government will continue to prioritise selective and phased public investment, directed at strategic sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, energy, human capital and the structural transformation of the economy,” he added.
“In the baseline scenario, real GDP is expected to grow by an average of approximately 4.9% per year with gas and 2.1% without gas, and could reach 9.5% in 2029 with the entry into production of liquefied natural gas projects.” — Inocêncio Impissa, Council of Ministers Spokesperson
The executive also pointed to a gradual reduction in the public debt burden: “The framework envisages the stabilisation and gradual reduction of public debt, which is projected to fall from 72.2% of GDP in 2025 to 67.1% in 2029. Debt servicing costs are expected to decline significantly, reflecting more prudent management, with longer maturities, greater recourse to concessional financing and a reduction in exposure to short-term instruments,” Impissa said.
The government nonetheless acknowledged the existence of both internal and external risks that could undermine the projections, “including climate shocks, security concerns, rigidity in public expenditure, international market volatility and global financial conditions.”
Even so, Impissa added, the government “will continue to monitor these risks and adopt the necessary measures to preserve the stability of public finances.”
Source: Diário Económico
