Global oil demand is expected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, a downward revision of 940,000 bpd from last month's forecast, due to the deadlock in negotiations between the United States and Iran, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
In its outlook released on Friday, 11 September, the IEA estimated that the reduction will be felt primarily in middle distillates — fuels derived from the distillation of crude oil — and in feedstocks used by the petrochemical industry, particularly across Asia.
For 2027, the agency projects a demand recovery of 2.6 million bpd, offsetting the decline forecast for this year. The trajectory will depend, however, on whether current oil market disruptions are prolonged or resolved.
Global oil production fell by 1.6 million bpd in August, to 100.1 million barrels per day. More than ten million barrels per day of Gulf output remained offline due to heightened security risks linked to the Middle East conflict.
The IEA estimates that global supply will contract by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, to 100.7 million barrels per day. A recovery in Gulf production is expected to be deferred to 2027, when supply could increase by eight million bpd.
Outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), production growth will be led by producers in the Americas. The United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana are expected to contribute a combined increase of 1.4 million bpd in 2026 and a further one million bpd in 2027.
Refineries reached a seasonal high of 81.4 million bpd in August, up 960,000 bpd from July, but down 4.2 million bpd compared with the same period last year.
For the full year, global refining throughput is forecast to decline by 2.6 million bpd, to 81.5 million barrels per day, the IEA said.
The agency also noted that refining margins reached record levels in the Atlantic Basin, driven by rising gasoil prices. In Singapore, by contrast, higher shipping costs weighed on refinery profitability.
Recorded global oil inventories fell by more than 95 million barrels in August. Crude volumes held on tankers declined by 65 million barrels, as renewed attacks once again disrupted tanker traffic from the Middle East.
Outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), inventories fell by 52 million barrels, with China leading the drawdown. In OECD countries, stocks rose by 23 million barrels, as growth in commercial inventories offset a 19-million-barrel decline in government reserves.
Following sharp gains in oil and gas prices on Thursday, the Brent benchmark contract advanced 1.47% to $106.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US reference grade, rose 1.35% to $101.10 per barrel.
North Sea Dated crude gained $7.61 per barrel in August, averaging $91, before reaching $113.48 on Tuesday.
Against this backdrop, the market structure has moved into extreme backwardation — a condition in which spot prices are significantly above futures contract prices. According to the IEA, this reflects a tighter market resulting from supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia, alongside a shift in demand towards Atlantic Basin crudes.
Tanker costs have also risen sharply, pressured by worsening security risks and increased demand for vessels.
The recovery anticipated for 2027 will depend largely on how supply disruptions evolve and on whether negotiations between Washington and Tehran allow for a normalisation of oil flows, the IEA concluded.
Following sharp gains in oil and gas prices on Thursday, the Brent benchmark contract advanced 1.47% to $106.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US reference grade, rose 1.35% to $101.10 per barrel.
Source: Diário Económico
Original article: https://www.diarioeconomico.co.mz/2026/09/11/mundo-en/aie-reve-em-baixa-previsao-para-procura-mundial-de-petroleo-este-ano/
