The Centre for Public Integrity (CIP) warned on Tuesday (12), in Maputo, that the expected revenues from natural gas exploration in northern Mozambique may take several years to produce a significant impact on public finances, and therefore called for greater investment in sectors capable of generating economic development and social well-being in the short term.
According to Lusa, the position was presented by CIP director Edson Cortez during the launch of the study titled “What Does Rovuma Gas Really Generate for Mozambique? – Fiscal Analysis of Coral Sul FLNG and the Limits of the LNG Dependency Model”, prepared in partnership with the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights (CDD) and Oxfam.
According to Edson Cortez, the Mozambican government has placed excessive expectations for economic growth on the extractive sector, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), while neglecting areas with greater capacity to produce immediate results for the population.
“The Government of Mozambique has been investing excessively in the extractive sector, leaving aside other sectors that, potentially, would have the capacity to generate development and well-being much more quickly,” he said.
According to the official, there is an overly optimistic perception in the country regarding the potential of the Rovuma Basin gas reserves, often presented as the main driver of national economic transformation. However, the study concludes that, due to the contracts currently in force, the financial gains for the State will be limited during the first years of exploration.
“In the case of the Coral Sul project, only from 2033 or 2034 onwards will the State begin to see significant gains from this business,” explained Edson Cortez.
The CIP director added that even oil- and gas-producing countries that achieved high levels of revenue had to diversify their economies in order to ensure sustainable development and reduce dependence on natural resources.
“If the money Mozambique collects is not sufficient, it will not be enough to generate economic diversification or to adequately invest in social and productive sectors,” he added.
During the presentation of the report, CIP researcher Rui Mate stated that Mozambique is currently among the ten countries with the largest natural gas reserves in the world. Even so, he argued that public debate on the sector remains excessively based on aggregated, long-term projections without adequate time context.
According to the researcher, some estimates point to accumulated revenues of around 77 billion dollars for the Mozambican State over the lifetime of the projects. However, he warned of the lack of methodological transparency in official projections and the limited discussion regarding costs, debt and the actual timeline of revenues.
Among the recommendations presented in the study, CIP argues that the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) should begin publishing future revenue projections and accelerate the release of audits related to recoverable project costs.
The authors also believe there is room to renegotiate fiscal components of the Rovuma Basin projects, proposing the revision of tax brackets in future ventures to ensure greater financial returns for the Mozambican State.
Mozambique currently has three approved megaprojects for liquefied natural gas exploration in the Rovuma Basin, off the coast of Cabo Delgado province, considered one of the world’s largest reserves of this resource.
Among the main investments are the projects led by TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil, valued at around 30 billion dollars and still awaiting final investment decisions. In operation since 2022 is the Coral Sul FLNG project, developed by Italy’s Eni, whose production is expected to expand from 2028 with the Coral Norte platform, in an additional investment of 7.2 billion dollars.
Source: Diário Económico
