The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained, this Monday, October 13, its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, projecting increases of 1.25% and 1.31%, respectively — driven mainly by the transportation sector.
In its October monthly report, released Monday, OPEC reaffirmed its optimistic outlook for global oil consumption, based on the expectation that the world economy will grow by around 3% both this year and next.
The group estimates that in 2025 global demand will reach 105.14 million barrels per day (bpd) — an increase of 1.30 million bpd compared to last year — and 106.52 million bpd in 2026, representing an additional 1.38 million bpd from 2025 levels. These projections are unchanged from the organization’s September report.
OPEC keeps its forecast unchanged, expecting global oil demand to surpass 106 million barrels per day by 2026, driven by transport fuels.
“Transport fuels are expected to drive global oil demand growth this year, with jet kerosene increasing by about 380,000 barrels per day,” OPEC experts noted. Of that, around 120,000 barrels per day will come from industrialized countries, where the organization foresees continued recovery in airline activity.
Meanwhile, for all other oil product categories — except liquefied natural gas (LNG) — consumption still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
Globally, diesel and gasoline demand are expected to rise by approximately 300,000 and 280,000 barrels per day, respectively, fueled by growing consumption in India, China, and other non-OECD countries.
India and China remain key growth engines for global fuel demand, alongside recovering air travel.
“Continued robust economic activity in Western Asia, the ongoing recovery in global air transport, and strong demand for petrochemical feedstocks will be key to oil demand growth in 2025,” OPEC summarized.
However, the organization also acknowledged significant uncertainties that could alter the outlook, including “inflation levels, monetary tightening measures, and sovereign debt burdens.”
For 2026, OPEC projects gasoline to lead global oil demand growth with an additional 430,000 barrels per day, followed by jet fuel with around 360,000 barrels per day.
On the supply side, OPEC maintained last month’s projections, estimating total non-OPEC+ output at 54.01 million bpd in 2025 and 54.64 million bpd in 2026. These figures imply annual increases of 810,000 bpd and 630,000 bpd, driven primarily by producers in the Americas — notably the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
Meanwhile, the 22 members of the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, produced a total of 43.046 million barrels per day in September, an increase of 630,000 bpd from August, according to independent estimates cited in the report.
OPEC+ output continues to rise as members gradually unwind production cuts introduced in 2022 to stabilize prices.
The group has been increasing production month by month since April, reversing deep cuts implemented in 2022 to sustain oil prices and regain part of its lost share in the global market.
Source: Lusa
