The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Thursday, September 11, that the projected rise in global oil stockpiles is “unsustainable,” in a report analyzing the impact of OPEC+’s recent decision to raise production in October by 137,000 barrels per day.
Although global production peaked in August, the IEA highlighted that supply continues to far outpace demand, leading to an average build-up of 2.5 million barrels per day in stockpiles during the second half of the year. In July alone, reserves grew by 26.5 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion.
The OPEC+ decision, taken last Sunday, comes against a backdrop of weakened demand and persistent market imbalances, further strained by geopolitical tensions and international sanctions. The agency stressed that without a significant course correction, the situation could worsen.
Despite the new increase agreed for October, the IEA noted that the cartel’s actual contribution will fall short of its theoretical target, as countries such as Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Russia face production constraints. In September, the effective rise was 1.5 million barrels per day, below the 2.5 million initially projected.
Looking ahead to 2026, the IEA projects demand growth of 2.1 million barrels per day, reaching a total of 107.9 million barrels daily. Around one million of that increase is expected to come from OPEC+, though uncertainties remain regarding sanctions on Russia and Iran, as well as the enforcement of the European ban on refined products of Russian origin set to take effect in early 2026.
The report also confirmed that in August, global crude oil demand hit an all-time record of 106.9 million barrels per day.
Source: Economia & Mercado
