The International Energy Agency (IEA) yesterday revised upwards its forecast for global oil demand for this year, in view of better expectations of economic recovery, especially from the United States and China.
In the monthly report on the oil market published yesterday, the IEA estimates that in 2021 an average of 96.7 million barrels per day will be consumed, 230,000 barrels per day more than it had forecast in March.
After the historic drop of 8.7 million barrels per day in 2020, the world will absorb 5.7 million barrels per day more this year.
The agency justifies this correction with the new economic outlook presented earlier this month by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which expects global gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.
But the IEA acknowledges that there is concern about the level of recovery in view of the re-emergence of cases of Covid-19 in Europe and other major consuming countries, such as Brazil and India, and which are in a delicate epidemic situation.
Global demand for crude oil increased sharply in March, up 1.7 million barrels a day on February, mainly thanks to the United States, which accounted for three quarters of this figure.
The IEA estimates that April will see a further increase in the amount of crude oil entering the market, mainly from the United States and Brazil.
At the same time, members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their partners continue to restrict flows, although they have agreed to progressively increase supply from May with an extra 2.1 million barrels a day between that month and July.
The group’s cuts of about 8 million barrels a day have led to a reduction in the huge reserves that built up around the world last year as demand collapsed in the wake of the pandemic crisis.
OECD members’ stocks fell by 55.8 million barrels a day to 2,977 million barrels in February, still 94 million barrels above levels a year earlier.
The report’s authors note that oil prices have come down from the peaks they reached in mid-March and point out that they could come under pressure again in the coming months against a background of rising consumption.
But they insist that there is no risk of supply problems, considering that in July OPEC and its partners, although they have increased their contributions as announced, will have a surplus production margin of about six million barrels a day.
