Mozambique is expected to grow by 4 per cent a year between 2024 and 2026, according to the latest Global Economic Prospects report released by the World Bank. In a region marked by structural challenges, conflicts and external pressures, the country stands out for the stability of its economic performance.
Although it does not merit individual analytical attention, Mozambique is included in the sample of developing African economies whose data is used to outline macroeconomic trends in sub-Saharan Africa. It is in this context that the World Bank notes a stable and consistent growth trajectory.
‘Mozambique’s real GDP growth rate was 5.4 per cent in 2023, above the regional average,’ reads the report’s statistical table, which projects an expansion of 4.0 per cent for the years 2024, 2025-26.
Mozambique’s performance contrasts with the forecasts for some of the region’s main economies. South Africa, for example, is expected to grow by just 1.8 per cent in 2025, while Angola will remain slightly below Mozambique, with a forecast of 2.9 per cent.
According to the World Bank, Mozambique is classified as a commodity-exporting economy, i.e. highly dependent on the export of natural resources, which makes it particularly sensitive to external shocks. Even so, the country has shown remarkable resilience.
‘Economic recovery is taking hold in several African economies, particularly those with robust domestic demand and relative macroeconomic stability,’ notes the report, in which Mozambique is implicitly included.
However, the organisation warns that risks remain high on the African continent, including the effects of climate change, fiscal vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions.
‘Low-income economies continue to be exposed to multiple shocks and face a more challenging external environment,’ says the document.
Mozambique, like other countries in the region, faces the challenge of transforming growth into social progress and economic inclusion. The report points out that the African countries that have managed to accelerate growth in recent decades have been those that have managed to combine internal reforms with strategic investment.
‘To sustain growth in the long term, it will be necessary to improve productivity, strengthen human capital and accelerate the climate transition,’ recommends the World Bank in a note addressed to all developing countries.
With an economic trajectory that remains firm in the face of adversity, Mozambique is positioned as one of the continent’s resilient economies. The challenge ahead, according to experts, is to ensure that this resilience translates into inclusive and sustainable development.
Full report here.
Source: Felisberto Ruco
