Mozambique is among the countries most exposed to rising living costs due to reduced fertilizer imports, following the disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a United Nations alert reported by Lusa.
According to the report “Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz: Implications for Global Trade and Development”, released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), instability along this strategic route could limit access to fertilizers in more vulnerable economies, directly affecting agricultural production and food prices.
“The escalation of the conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz region is increasingly reflected in fertilizer markets, linking disruptions in energy supply and maritime transport to agricultural markets, future food security, and trade,” the document states.
UNCTAD reports that in 2024, Mozambique imported around 22% of its fertilizers through this channel from the Persian Gulf, showing significant dependence on a route currently under geopolitical tension. Countries such as Tanzania, Sudan, and Sri Lanka face even higher levels of exposure.
The organization emphasizes that rising energy, fertilizer, and transport costs—including shipping, fuel, and insurance premiums—could lead to a general increase in food prices, affecting low-income populations the most. The report also highlights the high concentration of global fertilizer trade, a factor that amplifies disruption risks. About one-third of global maritime trade in these inputs passes through the Strait of Hormuz, totaling approximately 16 million tons transported annually from the Persian Gulf.
The crisis intensified after military attacks involving the United States and Israel against Iran, followed by retaliatory actions, including the closure of the strait and strikes on strategic infrastructure in the region.
Beyond fertilizers, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for the transport of about 20% of the world’s seaborne-traded oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas, reinforcing its critical role in the stability of global energy and agricultural markets.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict is producing visible effects on the global economy, slowing the recovery trajectory that had been consolidating after recent periods of instability. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), disruptions in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have heightened inflationary risks by increasing energy costs and raising production and transport costs worldwide.
This new geopolitical context has led to a downward revision of global growth prospects, with world GDP expected to slow from 3.3% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, reflecting the combined impact of higher energy prices and market uncertainty. At the same time, inflation in G20 countries is projected to reach 4.0% in 2026, worsening living costs and reducing purchasing power, particularly in import-dependent and vulnerable economies such as Mozambique.
Source: Diário Económico
