The government has revised downward its economic growth forecasts for the next two years, now projecting 1.9% GDP growth in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, below previous estimates. The announcement was made by the Minister of Planning and Development, Salim Valá, during the “Visão M – Millennium bim Economic Conference” held this Thursday (27) in Maputo, as part of the celebrations of the bank’s 30 years of operation.
Valá explained that the revision of growth projections is linked to a series of structural challenges that continue to affect the Mozambican economy, including international volatility, climate shocks, and the consequences of recent political and social crises.
“Mozambique’s economic growth has been driven by agriculture, services, trade, energy, some mining and hydrocarbon projects, as well as a gradual post-pandemic recovery. However, this growth is still far from generating the desired impacts on poverty, employment, and the well-being of Mozambican families,” highlighted the minister.
The government had initially projected GDP growth of 2.9% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026, but recent data indicate a significant slowdown. Valá emphasized that by the end of 2025, the national economy is expected to reach 1.6%, well below previous forecasts. For 2026, the growth projection was reduced to 2.8%, a revision that, according to the minister, reflects the need to adjust expectations to current global and national circumstances.
The minister also referenced Mozambique’s most recent economic performance, highlighting a 5.7% GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024 amid a tense political and post-election contestation scenario. Additionally, the first half of 2025 recorded a 2.4% contraction, although the government estimates that the economy will recover in the last two quarters, with projected growth of 2.1% in Q3 and 3.4% in Q4.
Salim Valá also emphasized that Mozambique continues to face significant economic vulnerabilities, such as dependence on raw materials and the impacts of climate shocks. “The country’s trade balance remains heavily influenced by exports of coal, aluminum, gas, and energy, but early signs of diversification are emerging, albeit modest, in agro-industry, logistics services, and blue economy initiatives,” he said.
The minister highlighted that despite prudent management of international reserves and the relative resilience of the metical, the country faces high fiscal pressures and limited budgetary space, with significant social needs. He also noted that the economy remains exposed to external challenges, such as fluctuations in international fuel, fertilizer, and food prices. “Beyond debt-related issues and limited foreign currency supply, our economy faces structural vulnerabilities that are not only in national accounts but in every community,” Valá stated, referring to the combination of low productivity, high informality, and territorial inequalities as the main obstacles to sustained growth. He emphasized that the government will continue to work on strengthening fiscal discipline and improving infrastructure, which are essential to boost productivity and reduce inequalities.
About the Event
The “Visão M – Millennium bim Economic Conference” celebrated the bank’s 30 years of operation, bringing together public and private decision-makers to discuss the country’s economic future. The event was attended by the President of the Republic, Daniel Chapo, banking leaders, and international representatives, reaffirming Millennium bim’s central role in Mozambique’s financial system.
The conference addressed topics such as economic diversification, financial inclusion, and digital transformation, highlighting the importance of collaboration between traditional banking, fintechs, and the government to modernize financial services and stimulate sustainable development in Mozambique.
Millennium bim, majority-controlled by BCP Africa (66.69%), recorded a 48.3% drop in profits in the first half of 2025, falling from MZN 3.2 billion ($49.5 million) in 2024 to MZN 1.7 billion ($25.6 million). Despite the decline, the bank continues to play a fundamental role in Mozambique’s financial sector.
Text: Felisberto Ruco
