The new Mozambican President faces a set of profound and interconnected challenges, from terrorism in the North to the economic collapse that is widely affecting Mozambican society. The analysis is by David Matsinhe (researcher and adjunct professor of African studies at Carleton University), published on The Conversation website .
According to Matsinhe, Daniel Chapo, the newly elected Mozambican President, will have to manage a complex situation in which political, economic and social crises are accumulating.
Chapo, who won the 9 October elections by a wide margin but in a process marked by accusations of fraud, inherits a country where ‘the problems are a reflection of decades of ineffective management and systematic corruption’, writes the analyst.
Among the most pressing challenges are economic inequalities, endemic corruption and the lack of quality infrastructure, problems that require not only immediate reforms, but also long-term policies.
One of the critical points, according to the analyst, is the economic crisis that has plagued Mozambique, with a drastic decline in GDP growth, from 7 per cent in 2014 to just 1.8 per cent in 2023.
‘The country, rich in natural resources, continues to see millions of Mozambicans trapped in extreme poverty, with more than 62 per cent of the population living below the poverty line,’ emphasises Matsinhe, who points to over-dependence on extractive industries and an unbalanced economic system as contributing factors to the current crisis.
The public debt crisis, aggravated by the hidden debt scandal, which revealed an undeclared amount of two billion dollars, continues to reduce the state’s capacity to invest in essential sectors such as health and education.
The armed conflict in the north of the country, in Cabo Delgado, is another significant obstacle. Since 2017, the province has been the target of attacks by extremist groups who exploit the discontent of a population ‘deprived of economic and social opportunities as a result of historical marginalisation and weak governance’, notes the analyst.
This conflict, which has killed more than 4,000 people and displaced almost a million, will be a delicate test for Chapo’s leadership, which will need to ‘balance military and development responses’ to resolve security and social inclusion issues, especially in a region that continues to be rich in natural gas and rubies.
Matsinhe also highlights the devastating effects of climate change on Mozambique, which is cyclically hit by high-intensity cyclones such as Idai and Kenneth in 2019.
These phenomena have destroyed infrastructure and exacerbated the country’s vulnerability to natural crises. The new President will have to implement policies that encompass both mitigation and adaptation to climate change, including multilateral co-operation strategies.
‘The new President will have to promote structural reforms and adopt a new approach to governance’
Other problems, such as drug trafficking, high unemployment – especially among young people – and the phenomenon of kidnappings of businesspeople and public figures also threaten the country’s stability and security.
‘Drug trafficking networks, supported by porous borders and weak governance, reinforce networks of political influence and make it difficult to combat organised crime,’ Matsinhe warns, stressing that combating these problems requires more robust state institutions and international collaboration.
To meet these challenges, Matsinhe believes that the new president will have to promote structural reforms and adopt a new approach to governance.
‘The future of Mozambican President depends on the leadership capacity of the next President to break with the traditional moulds of Frelimo, eliminating clientelist practices and investing in inclusive economic growth, security and sustainable development,’ he concluded.