The executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, warned on Tuesday that the deteriorating situation around the Strait of Hormuz is compounding concerns over oil supply security and adding to uncertainty across global energy markets.
Birol nonetheless pointed to several mitigating factors, citing the significant efforts by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to secure oil supply through alternative routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, rising exports from other producers — in particular the United States, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan — as well as China’s moves to reduce its import volumes.
In its most recent monthly oil market report, published on 10 July, the IEA revised down its forecast for demand growth in 2026 to one million barrels per day, compared with an earlier estimate of 1.1 million barrels per day presented in mid-June.
The agency also noted that global oil supply had partially recovered following the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, although production remained well below levels recorded prior to the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.
According to the IEA, global oil supply stood at 98.8 million barrels per day in June and is expected to average 102.6 million barrels per day in 2026, provided there is no further escalation of hostilities.
At the open of European markets on Tuesday, Brent crude — the European benchmark — for September delivery was down 0.77% at $88.53 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, also for September delivery, fell 0.28% to $82.25 per barrel.
Source: Diário Económico
