Standard Bank Mozambique’s chief economist said on Wednesday that the country’s GDP fell by 1.6% by the end of 2024, and that the economy should grow by 3% this year, or 1% excluding the extractive sector.
“Our estimates for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2024 of 2.5%, after 5.4% in 2023, reflect a contraction of 1.6%, always in year-on-year terms, in GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024,” writes Fáusio Mussá in the commentary accompanying the release of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for January.
These figures, he adds, “imply that GDP growth, excluding the extractive sector (mining and Liquefied Natural Gas), was below 1% year-on-year in 2024,” which represents growth of less than half that recorded in 2023, when the Mozambican economy expanded by 2.2% compared to the previous year.
For the first three months of this year, Fáusio Mussá expects the economic difficulties to keep the economy in the red, but nevertheless foresees a recovery in the rest of the year.
“The contraction in GDP growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, but there should be a recovery in subsequent quarters, consistent with our GDP growth forecast of 3% year-on-year for 2025,” says the economist.
Mozambique has been experiencing a climate of intense social unrest since October, with demonstrations and stoppages called first by former presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane, who rejects the election results of 9 October.
Today, protests, now on a smaller scale, have been taking place in different parts of the country and, as well as contesting the results, people are complaining about the rising cost of living and other social problems.
Since October, at least 327 people have died, including around two dozen minors, and around 750 have been shot during the protests, according to the electoral platform Decide, a non-governmental organisation that monitors electoral processes.
Lusa
