The economy recorded in December its third consecutive month of growth in private-sector activity, achieving its best performance in ten months, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on Monday (5) by Standard Bank. The report highlights a broad-based improvement in output, order volumes and employment, while also strengthening business confidence for 2026.
According to Lusa, Mozambique’s PMI reached 50.9 points in December, slightly above 50.8 in November and 50.4 in October. Readings above 50 indicate an improvement in business conditions, while those below signal deterioration. According to the bank, this marks the largest increase in private-sector economic activity since February, reflecting the strongest rise in employment in more than two and a half years.
The study notes that “rising levels of new business and output supported companies in their decisions to hire, acquire more production inputs and, for the first time since last April, increase their stocks.” Despite the recovery, the report warns that input cost inflation remained among the highest levels of the year, continuing to place pressure on business operations.
The recovery was broad-based across the main sectors of the economy, with particular emphasis on services and wholesale and retail trade, where the largest increases in activity were recorded. New order volumes rose for the third consecutive month, although at a slower pace than the November peak, which had been the highest in the past 17 months. Even so, demand remained robust, allowing continuous growth in output over the past six months.
The Chief Economist of Standard Bank Mozambique, Fáusio Mussá, highlighted that Mozambican companies are showing “strong optimism” regarding future performance.
“For 2026, the bank maintains its forecast of an annual inflation rate of 5.6%, supported by the expected stability of the metical against the US dollar.”
Fáusio Mussá added: “The outlook for the next 12 months was the strongest since last September and better than the average observed in 2025,” pointing to positive factors such as expected sales growth, increased hiring, the launch of new products and efficiency gains.
Regarding economic growth, GDP is expected to expand by 1.1%, a modest increase compared to the 0.7% estimate for 2025. However, the bank warns that the recovery will be slow, due to persistent fiscal pressures and liquidity constraints in the foreign exchange market.
The study also refers to the possible closure of Mozal by the end of the first quarter of 2026, a scenario that could intensify challenges for the national economy. Even so, analysts maintain a degree of confidence in the recovery, supported by expected progress in major liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, which are expected to help drive economic growth in the coming quarters.
Source: Diário Económico
