Mozambique will be the Portuguese-speaking economy with the fastest growth, forecast to expand 2.6 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2024, as opposed to Equatorial Guinea, which remains in recession.
The economies of the Portuguese-speaking African Countries (PALOP) will accelerate growth in 2024 compared to this year, with the exception of Equatorial Guinea, which is sinking into recession, and Guinea-Bissau, which maintains this year’s expansion.
According to the report on Global Economic Prospects, released Tuesday in Washington, Mozambique will be the Portuguese-speaking economy with the fastest growth, with a projected expansion of 8 percent next year, which cements the 5 percent growth projected for this year.
Cape Verde, which is still recovering from the significant drop in tourism revenues due to the Covid-19 pandemic, is expected to see growth of 4.8 percent this year and 5.4 percent in 2024, confirming the robustness of its economic recovery.
Guinea Bissau is expected to maintain growth of 4.5 percent this year and next year, whilst Angola is not expected to maintain its 2021 growth rate, recorded in the year following five years of economic recession.
Africa’s biggest Portuguese-speaking economy is thus expected to expand by 2.6 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2024, more or less in line with population growth, which will not be enough to increase per capita wealth.
São Tomé and Príncipe is also expected to accelerate from 2.1% this year to 3.4% next year, only slightly above the growth recorded in the first year of the pandemic, in 2020, when the economy grew by 3.1%.
At the opposite extreme is Equatorial Guinea, which remains unable to grow its economy. The newest Lusophone country has been mired in recession since the middle of the last decade, having only interrupted this negative cycle with a 2.9% growth last year.
For 2023 and 2024, the World Bank predicts a recession of 3.7% and 6%, and in 2025 it is estimated to contract again, by 3.1%.
Regionally, the World Bank forecasts economic growth to slow to 3.2% this year before accelerating to 3.9% in 2024, with economic recovery threatened by a number of factors.
“The recovery of economies from adverse economic and climate shocks, already fragile and incomplete in many countries, has been weakened by persistent high inflation, further tightening in global financial conditions and domestic policies, and outbreaks of violence and social unrest in some countries,” reads the part of the “Global Economic Prospects” report on sub-Saharan Africa.
According to the document, released Tuesday in Washington, sub-Saharan Africa entered 2023 with 35 million more people facing acute food insecurity than the previous year, a situation aggravated by high inflation, which was above 10 percent in almost 70 percent of the countries.
Observador
