Oxford Economics estimates that inflation in Mozambique is likely to rise from 3.1% this year to 5.4% in 2025, driven by climatic phenomena and the impacts of post-election violence.
“Inflation is likely to face upward pressure in 2025 due to the adverse effects of the recent El Nino, constraints on supply and distribution chains due to the disruption following the elections, and an increase in capital expenditure,” reads the commentary, to which Lusa had access on Monday, by this British consultancy on the latest inflation figures in Mozambique.
Prices in Mozambique rose by 0.72% in November compared to October, registering year-on-year inflation of 2.84%, higher than in October, according to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE).
This is the third consecutive monthly increase after prices had registered four months of deflation: 0.11% in August, 0.05% in July, 0.21% in June and 0.38% in May.
Year-on-year inflation, which compares with the same month in 2023, was 2.84% in November, compared to 2.68% in October and 2.45% in September.
At the beginning of December, Mozambique’s central bank warned that prices would continue to rise due to the consequences of the country’s post-election tensions.
The Economic Situation and Inflation Outlook (CEPI) report indicates that inflation in Mozambique “remained stable in October”, despite a slight increase to 2.68%, but “the short-term outlook points to an acceleration in annual inflation in the fourth quarter of 2024”.
“This forecast stems essentially from the restrictions on the supply of goods and services resulting from the post-election tension,” reads the report.
The announcement by Mozambique’s National Electoral Commission (CNE) of the results of the 9 October elections, in which it awarded victory to Daniel Chapo, supported by the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo, the party in power since 1975) in the election for President of the Republic, with 70.67% of the votes, sparked popular protests, called by presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane.
According to the CNE, Mondlane came second with 20.32%, but the latter does not recognise the results, which must still be validated and proclaimed by the Constitutional Council.
“Our projections have already been incorporating these risks, these uncertainties,” said the governor of the Bank of Mozambique.
Since 21 October, Mozambique has been experiencing a wave of protests. Economic activities have been severely restricted, and post-election protests have even spread to the country’s main border with South Africa, Ressano Garcia.
Lusa
