British consultancy Oxford Economics forecasts that inflation in Mozambique could rise significantly this year to 4.8%, surging to 8.4% in 2027, mainly due to the restart of gas projects.
“Inflation will continue to moderate in the first quarter of 2026, with prices contained by exchange-rate stability and high real interest rates. However, the restart of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and some monetary financing of the budget deficit will exert upward pressure on prices this year,” analysts cited by Lusa said.
Commenting on the inflation figures recorded in December—without taking into account the current situation of flooding and crop losses in Mozambique—the consultancy’s Africa department also stated that “the country’s overvalued currency, limited foreign exchange reserves and pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will likely lead the government to gradually devalue the metical in 2026.”
This, they continued, will cause “average inflation to rise moderately to 4.8% in 2026, accelerating further to an average of 8.4% in 2027, as the effects of currency depreciation become more pronounced.”
Inflation in Mozambique stood at 3.23% in 2025, according to data released by the National Statistics Institute (INE), a figure representing less than half of the government’s official estimate, which had projected a rate of around 7%. The result confirms a deceleration trend that began in 2023 and was consolidated in 2024, when accumulated inflation reached 4.15%, following 5.3% in 2023 and a peak of nearly 13% recorded in July 2022.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 showed a monthly increase of 0.49% compared to November, with the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector contributing 0.43 percentage points to this variation.
Despite the overall upward trend in prices, the country recorded eight monthly periods of deflation within less than 18 months, four of them consecutive between April and July 2024, before resuming an upward trajectory from August onwards.
For 2026, the government maintains an inflation forecast similar to that of the previous year, also around 7%.
Source: Diário Económico
