This Sunday, 25 February, consultancy Oxford Economics considered that, after the 5% growth recorded in 2023, the economy will slow down to 4.5% this year, despite the expected 2.5% increase in natural gas production.
“We anticipate that slower natural gas production this year, of 2.5 per cent, will contribute to a slowdown in economic growth to 4.5 per cent this year,” write the Oxford Economics analysts, in a comment on last year’s 5 per cent economic expansion.
“Despite the adversity of having to deal with Cyclone Fredy, the longest cyclone ever recorded, and the ongoing violence in Cabo Delgado, the economy was able to advance in 2023 thanks to the increase in offshore liquefied natural gas production,” says the African department of this British consultancy.
In a commentary sent to investors, to which Lusa has had access, Oxford Economics believes that oil company TotalEnergies will return to Cabo Delgado later this semester, but warns that the proximity of the elections could increase the attacks and “cast a cloud over the elections” scheduled for the end of the year.
The Mozambican President said on Wednesday that TotalEnergies should have resumed operations in Cabo Delgado by now, describing France’s call for citizens of that country not to travel to certain parts of the province as a “diplomatic decision”.
“For me [the resumption of the project] should have been yesterday or last month,” said Filipe Nyusi, questioned by journalists about the security situation in Cabo Delgado in the face of new rebel incursions, moments after chairing a government meeting in Pemba, the provincial capital.
The French Embassy in Mozambique is appealing to French citizens not to travel to the cities of Mocímboa da Praia, Pemba and Palma, in Cabo Delgado (north), due to the “terrorist threat”.
“Due to the presence of a terrorist and kidnapping threat in the towns of Mocímboa da Praia, Pemba and Palma, it is strongly recommended not to travel to these towns, as well as to travel on the roads linking these towns,” reads a message to travellers published a week ago by the French Embassy in Maputo.
“It wasn’t the project owner who spoke, it was a diplomat, from what I heard,” said the Mozambican head of state on Wednesday (21).
According to the Bank of Mozambique, the 5.36 per cent growth in the last quarter of last year compares with 5.92 per cent in the previous quarter, which followed increases of 4.67 per cent in the period from April to June and 4.17 per cent from January to March, which translates into average economic growth in 2023 of just over 5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product.
The slight reduction, of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, is essentially the result of “less accentuated growth in the extractive industry” and the “negative performance of the manufacturing industry”, the central bank explained in mid-February, quoting INE.
