The British consultancy Oxford Economics has revised downward its forecast for Mozambique’s economic growth to 0.3% this year, below the 2.5% previously estimated. Despite the 4.67% expansion recorded in the last quarter of 2025, the institution now anticipates almost zero growth in 2026.
“Unfortunately, we foresee Mozambique’s economy facing another difficult year in 2026,” the consultancy’s analysts wrote in a comment released this Monday, 2 March, regarding Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the last quarter of 2025.
In the document sent to clients, accessed by Lusa, the analysts state that “preliminary projections show that real GDP growth should be only 0.3% this year, below the previous forecast of 2.5%,” thus confirming a significant downward revision of the estimates.
Oxford Economics’ Africa department points to recent floods as one of the main factors, noting that they “destroyed vast areas of crops and infrastructure”, along with the announced closure of the Mozal aluminium plant and the scheduled maintenance shutdown of the Coral South platform, operated by Eni.
According to the analysis, these developments are expected to negatively affect exports, employment, production and consumer spending, limiting growth in the short term and making the economy more vulnerable to internal and external shocks.
Data from the National Statistics Institute indicate that, despite the 4.67% growth in the last quarter of 2025, the country recorded an annual contraction of 0.52%. Before that, the economy had declined by 3.92% and 0.94% in the first and second quarters of 2025, respectively, after a drop of 0.85% in the third quarter and 5.68% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The last period of growth had been in the third quarter of 2024, when GDP increased by 5.58%, before the general elections held on 9 October that year. The violent protests that followed caused more than 400 deaths and the destruction of businesses and public infrastructure, worsening the economic crisis.
For 2025, the Government had initially projected economic growth of 2.9%, already revised downward after the 1.9% recorded in 2024.
“According to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) report on debt sustainability, the country is already in ‘debt distress’ and its policies are unsustainable,” the analysts warned, adding that a new IMF programme could include “painful fiscal consolidation, domestic debt restructuring and a currency devaluation”, measures which, according to Oxford Economics, “will harm economic growth in the short term”.
Source: Diário Económico
