Mozambique is currently going through a deep economic and social crisis, significantly aggravated by the recent post-election demonstrations, the consequences of which have been far-reaching and, for the most part, irreversible. As an immediate response to the damage caused by these episodes, the government announced the creation of a subsidised credit line worth 156 million dollars (10 billion meticals) to support companies severely affected by the violent demonstrations in the last months of 2024.
In this critical scenario, economist Oldemiro Belchior argues that the state ‘must take a more active role in the economy, intervening directly to guarantee stability, stimulate economic recovery and reduce structural vulnerabilities that have become evident with the current crisis.’
It is in this complex context that the economist decided to intervene by launching a detailed analysis, materialised in the study ‘Strategic Vision for Mozambique’s Economic Recovery 2025-2030’. Based on a close look at the market and his academic and professional career, the document seeks to answer a central and urgent question: ‘What to do the day after?’
Weaknesses of the current economic model
In this sense, Belchior is particularly critical of the country’s current economic model, warning that ‘the crisis has clearly exposed the vulnerabilities of the current neoliberal economic development model, which minimises the role of the state and exalts the market’. This fragility has resulted in ‘complete dependence on external supply chains, particularly South Africa’, exacerbating social inequalities and increasing the marginalisation of disadvantaged sectors.
The economist proposes a set of fundamental strategic principles. According to him, the recovery plan must combat ‘accelerated deindustrialisation and the subalternisation of the productive economy’, betting decisively on ‘industrial reconversion, investment in public health, the social sector, technological innovation and an effective fight against poverty.’
The government announced the creation of a subsidised credit line worth 10 billion meticals to support companies severely affected by the demonstrations
Priority sectors to implement these principles
Belchior suggests ‘strengthening’ traditional sectors through technological innovation. Among these he highlights ‘agriculture, agri-food, manufacturing, metalworking, machinery manufacturing, tourism, services and energy’, which he says should be ‘leveraged to increase Mozambique’s international competitiveness.’
Central to this strategic plan is the modernisation of infrastructure. Belchior argues that a ‘modern, electric railway network is essential to position Mozambique as a strategic logistics platform, establishing effective links with Africa and Europe’. This development is closely linked to industrial reconversion and the sustainable exploitation of strategic national resources.
Priority industrial areas
In this context, he identifies specific areas that can accelerate economic recovery: ‘forestry, aeronautics, defence, creative industries, footwear and fashion, strategic mineral resources, smart cities, textiles, engineering, health, automotive, agri-food, information and communication technologies, electronics and tourism.’
From a funding perspective, Belchior emphasises the potential of strategic sectors such as ‘renewable energies, mining, oil and gas’. He also recommends solid international partnerships with technologically advanced countries, such as ‘Germany, France, the United States, Canada, Japan and India’, to boost these sectors and guarantee sustainable foreign investment.
Support for SMEs
Aware of the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the national economic fabric, Belchior emphasises that these companies ‘represent more than 95% of the national business fabric and employ more than 75% of the workforce’. He therefore advocates clear and transparent policies on the part of the state, including reducing tax burdens in order to increase competitiveness and secure jobs.
Global competitiveness and technological innovation
In technological terms, Belchior considers the digitalisation of the economy to be essential, pointing out that ‘artificial intelligence, data science, electronics and 3D printing will be decisive in modernising Mozambican industry, making it globally competitive.’
On the other hand, agriculture is seen as a strategic sector where ‘the bioeconomy, efficient irrigation systems, the valorisation of endogenous resources and sustainable water management’ must prevail. Belchior also stresses the importance of ‘encouraging young farmers with technological infrastructures such as fibre optics throughout the country’.
Energy transition
In the energy field, Belchior is emphatic in his defence of energy diversification, promoting strategic investments in ‘solar, wind, advanced biofuels, green hydrogen and large-scale electricity storage.’
Finally, Belchior is optimistic, saying that Mozambique ‘has strategic resources that, exploited in a sustainable and technological way, will ensure a prosperous economic future, while strictly respecting ecosystems’.
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Text: Felisberto Ruco
