The imposition of high trade tariffs by the United States on products from the European Union and China is redesigning the dynamics of international trade and casting uncertainty over the global economy. However, economists contacted by DE point out that the impact on Mozambique could have double effects – with risks in the long term, but also opportunities in the short term.
According to economist Egas Daniel, this new protectionist escalation could cause an increasing fragmentation of trade, making imported products more expensive and reducing global competitiveness. ‘With the United States imposing tariffs of up to 104 per cent on Chinese products, global demand tends to slow down, which could result in a drop in the price of raw materials such as oil,’ explains Daniel, explaining that this scenario could benefit countries that are net importers of fossil fuels, such as Mozambique, by reducing import costs.
However, Egas Daniel warns that a global recession induced by this trade war could also reduce demand for products that Mozambique exports – such as coal, natural gas and aluminium – negatively impacting export revenues and the country’s trade balance. ‘We are facing a delicate balance: what we gain from the fall in fuel prices could be lost with the devaluation of our exports,’ he emphasises.
Economist Clésio Foia reinforces this view, explaining that the impacts of this tariff war are not limited to the major powers. ‘Mozambique could be affected indirectly, because global value chains are interconnected. If Chinese and European companies are forced to look for alternative markets, cheaper products could enter Africa, putting pressure on local Mozambican producers and unbalancing the market,’ warns Foia.
In addition, instability in international markets could put pressure on the metical and cause imported inflation, aggravating the cost of living in the country. The increase in the price of machinery, fertilisers and other imported capital goods, due to trade volatility, could put sectors such as agriculture and construction at risk.
On the other hand, trade tensions can open strategic windows for emerging countries. With the retreat of the big economies in some production chains, there is room for Mozambique and other African nations to take on new roles in global economic geopolitics, provided there are the right investments, improvements in competitiveness and logistical infrastructure.
However, Foia warns that the current international context is marked by high uncertainty. ‘The rhetoric of US economic independence, which aims to reindustrialise domestically and reduce dependence on China, may be unsustainable in the long term. At the same time, it accelerates the fragmentation of the global economic system and encourages the emergence of alternative blocs such as the BRICS, which could isolate the US and profoundly alter the world economic order,’ he said.
In this scenario, the country must adopt a proactive and strategic stance: diversify its trading partners, invest in local value chains and improve the business environment to attract more foreign direct investment. The country also needs to strengthen its economic resilience in the face of external shocks, betting on light industrialisation and the local transformation of resources.
Economists reiterate that the new trade war between the US, China and the EU is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that combines systemic risks with one-off opportunities. For Mozambique, the challenge will be to navigate between these extremes, maximising the short-term benefits, such as lower fuel costs, and minimising the negative impacts on exports, inflation and foreign investment. The moment calls for lucid economic leadership, robust public policies and a strategic vision for the future.
Text: Nário Sixpene
