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Natural Disasters Caused Damage of 18 Billion Meticals in 2021

Natural Disasters Caused Damage of 18 Billion Meticals in 2021

In 2021, weather events caused an estimated damage of 18 billion Meticals against a budget made available by the Contingency Plan of 2.2 billion Meticals, resulting in a deficit of 15.8 billion Meticais.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, in its “Fiscal Risks Report for 2023”, it reports that the discrepancies between the damage and the Contingency Plan represent the pressures that the Government had to respond in that year, or in subsequent years, until the end of reconstruction.

Estimates according to the document, show that during the period from 2015 to 2022, a value of 3.9 billion Meticais was allocated to the Contingency Plan, while damages were valued at 42.4 billion Meticais.

“The increasing intensity and magnitude of climate shocks have been increasing not only fiscal costs, but also other costs with significant economic and social impacts. In the social sphere, about a million people have been affected by natural disasters, with special focus on the provinces of Manica, Sofala, Tete, Zambézia and Nampula,” the document reads.

For the Ministry of Economy and Finance, natural disasters remain a major fiscal risk for the state over the next two years, due to projections of worsening impact of climate change.

“United Nations climate forecasts point to a scenario of continued warming and a decrease in rainfall, especially in the North and South of the African continent. The report also estimates that if the temperature rise remains on the current trajectory, the world could lose about 10% of total economic value due to climate change, and the zero net emissions goals of the Paris Agreement may not be achieved,” the report said.

The report, reveals that Mozambique ranks 50th out of 181 countries in the World Risk Index, with a score of 6.65 calculated based on exposure, vulnerability, susceptibility, lack of responsiveness and adoption capacity to deal with climate reality, making it vulnerable to extreme natural calamities.

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United Nations projections also indicate a probability of about 58 per cent of occurrence of the La Niña (heavy rainfall) phenomenon, by the period February – March 2023.

Before the United Nations, the MEF Report mentions that the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) forecasts precipitation in the southern and central regions of the country, because, the La Niña phenomenon favours the occurrence of above-normal rainfall in southern Africa and in the southern and central regions of the country, while the northern region may experience a shortage of rainfall during this period, specifically in the period from October 2022 until March 2023.

“Thus, given the country’s level of exposure to the occurrence of disasters and the fact that a large part of the population resides in coastal regions, which are vulnerable to cyclones, the main management and mitigation instruments for disaster risks should consider the historical data (damages and fiscal costs) for the same phenomenon (La Niña) in order to prepare a resilient macro fiscal framework,” recommends the Fiscal Risks Report.

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