Mozambique's Ministry of Finance projects the country's economy will grow 9.5% in 2029, driven by the start of production at new natural gas projects in Cabo Delgado, according to forecasts presented in the 2027 Fiscal Risk Report.
The projected growth is expected to push nominal gross domestic product (GDP) above two trillion meticais for the first time, reaching 2.1 trillion meticais (approximately €28.7 billion).
The projections point to a gradual recovery in economic activity following estimated growth of just 0.6% in 2026. The government forecasts expansion of 1.54% in 2027, followed by 3.7% in 2028 and 9.5% in 2029.
The sharp acceleration forecast for 2029 is directly linked to the commissioning of new natural gas projects. Without the contribution of these projects, economic growth would be limited to 3.7% — 5.8 percentage points below the baseline scenario.
Nominal GDP is projected to reach 1.8 trillion meticais in 2027 and 1.9 trillion meticais in 2028, before climbing to 2.1 trillion meticais in 2029.
Average annual inflation is also expected to follow a downward trajectory over the period. After reaching a projected 8.7% in 2026, it is forecast to ease to 7% in 2027, 6.5% in 2028, and 5.5% in 2029.
Tax revenues are projected to rise from 333.9 billion meticais in 2026 to 340.8 billion in 2027, 362.2 billion in 2028, and 397 billion meticais in 2029.
The report also envisages a progressive improvement in public finances. A fiscal deficit of 15.8 billion meticais projected for 2026 is expected to give way to surpluses of 18.9 billion meticais in 2027, 54.5 billion in 2028, and 75.2 billion meticais in 2029.
Public debt is forecast to decline from 72.1% of GDP in 2026 to 70.5% in 2027, 68.8% in 2028, and 67.1% in 2029. Despite the reduction, the ratio will remain above the regional reference threshold of 60%.
Natural Gas as the Engine of Growth
The government's projections are, however, contingent on the materialisation of planned investments in the natural gas sector, as well as on the evolution of the security situation in Cabo Delgado and global economic conditions.
Data from the National Petroleum Institute (INP) indicate that Mozambique holds approximately 180 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in situ, concentrated primarily in Areas 1 and 4 of the Rovuma Basin. These resources are considered strategic for economic growth, energy security, and the promotion of the country's sustainable development.
Mozambique has three major approved projects for the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves in the Rovuma Basin, which rank among the largest gas reserves in the world.
The Coral Sul project, operated by Eni, is currently the only one in production, having commenced operations in 2022. In October last year, a US$7.2 billion investment in a second floating platform, Coral Norte, was approved. The new platform is expected to begin operations in 2028 and would double production capacity to seven million tonnes of LNG per year, with a third unit still under study.
In Area 1, the Mozambique LNG project, operated by TotalEnergies, officially resumed activities in January following a four-year suspension caused by the deterioration of the security situation in Cabo Delgado. The project, valued at approximately US$20 billion, envisages production capacity of up to 13 million tonnes of LNG per year from 2029.
In Area 4, the Rovuma LNG project, led by ExxonMobil, represents an estimated investment of US$30 billion and projects production capacity of 18 million tonnes per year after 2030. A final investment decision is expected later this year.
The delivery of these projects will be decisive for the growth scenario outlined by the Ministry of Finance, which places natural gas at the centre of the economic acceleration projected for the end of the decade.
Source: Diário Económico
Original article: https://www.diarioeconomico.co.mz/2026/09/23/economia/governo-preve-economia-a-crescer-95-ate-final-da-decada-impulsionada-pelo-gas/
