Financial rating agency Moody’s has improved its outlook for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2025, highlighting Mozambique as a country with the potential to attract strategic investments, but still exposed to significant risks.
According to the report released on 8 January, the energy sector and infrastructure projects continue to drive the Mozambican economy, but political instability, environmental vulnerability and difficulties in managing foreign debt represent challenges that could compromise this progress, reported Engineering New.
According to Moody’s, the country has a privileged position in the natural gas sector, with the Rovuma basin attracting increasing attention from foreign investors. Global interest in the energy transition places the country in a strategic position, with the possibility of raising capital for new explorations and associated infrastructure.
However, the agency emphasises that this potential could be affected by domestic political instability. The recent electoral crisis, marked by protests following the results of the 9 October elections, has generated uncertainty about the governing environment.
The return to Mozambique of opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane has reignited tensions and raises doubts about institutional stability in the coming months. For investors, a scenario of political uncertainty can represent a significant risk factor, leading to a more cautious stance when making strategic decisions.
In addition to the political challenges, Moody’s warns of the growing pressure on Mozambique’s external debt. With a high level of indebtedness, the country faces difficulties in accessing external financing, a situation that could worsen if the dollar continues to appreciate in 2025.
Rising debt servicing costs could limit the government’s ability to invest in key sectors for diversifying the economy, making it even more urgent to implement fiscal reforms that guarantee greater financial sustainability.
‘The recent electoral crisis, marked by protests following the results of the 9 October elections, has generated uncertainty about the governing environment. The return to Mozambique of Venâncio Mondlane has reignited tensions and raises doubts about institutional stability in the coming months’
Environmental vulnerability is another risk factor highlighted by the agency. Mozambique continues to be one of the countries most exposed to extreme weather events, such as droughts and cyclones, which have affected agricultural production and compromised food security. The frequency of these disasters not only puts the most vulnerable communities at risk, but also generates negative economic impacts, reducing productivity and putting further pressure on public accounts.
On the other hand, the report highlights some opportunities that can contribute to more solid and sustainable growth. The infrastructure sector continues to receive strategic investment, including projects to modernise transport, telecommunications and energy networks. These initiatives are essential for improving the competitiveness of the Mozambican economy and creating a more favourable environment for private investment.
Overall, Moody’s maintains a cautiously optimistic view of Mozambique. The country has significant growth potential, but for this to materialise it will be necessary to ensure greater political stability, strengthen debt management and accelerate economic reforms that promote a more resilient business environment. The year 2025 is therefore a decisive moment for Mozambique, where the ability to overcome internal challenges will determine the direction of its economy in the coming years.