The government revealed that, globally, Mozambique is among the ten countries most vulnerable to the impact of climate change, and that on the African continent it ranks sixth. Between 2012-24, more than 59 disasters were declared, including 15 tropical cyclones and 39 above-normal rains, which affected more than 8.9 million people who are still in need of urgent humanitarian aid.
In its most recent report on fiscal risks for 2025, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) announced that during the next rainy and cyclonic season (October 2024 to March 2025), the country will be under the influence of the La Ninã phenomenon, which will lead to above-normal rainfall in the Centre and South regions.
‘Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies point to a transition from El Niño to La Niña,’ described the document consulted by DE on Wednesday 18 September.
In this sense, the report stated that, based on climate projections, it is estimated that real growth could be 0.7pp (percentage points) below the potential capacity of the national economy.
‘This scenario is historically notorious with an output gap* in negative territory, influenced in part by natural disasters that have impacted the economy’s ability to reach its potential output,’ the MEF said.
Mozambique is considered one of the countries most severely affected by global climate change, facing cyclical floods and tropical cyclones during the rainy season, which runs from October to April.
*What is the output gap?
The output gap is the difference between the current Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the potential GDP of a given country, which can be positive or negative, and which measures the cyclical fluctuations of a given economy.
Cleusia Chirindza
