Economic growth could be reduced from 5.1 per cent to 4.4 per cent in 2025 due to the effects of natural disasters predicted for next year. The conclusion is contained in the Fiscal Risks Report 2025, released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), and consulted by Diário Económico this Tuesday (3).
According to the report, the La Niña climate phenomenon, which is expected to occur between October 2024 and March 2025, should bring above-normal rainfall to the centre and south of the country.
This phenomenon could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, which will be 0.7 percentage points below the initial forecast, due to the expected impact on economic activities in various areas of the country.
The document emphasises that, despite an average growth scenario estimated at 5.1% for the 2025-27 period, an alternative, more pessimistic scenario projects growth of 4.6%, if sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, construction and trade perform below expectations.
This less favourable scenario could result in a drop of 15.5 billion meticals (245 million dollars) in public revenue collection and negatively affect the state’s primary balance.
In terms of nominal GDP, with the contribution of the gas sector, it is estimated that it will increase from 1.5 billion meticals (24.2 billion dollars) in 2024 to 1.9 billion meticals (31.2 billion dollars) in 2027.
Real growth, including gas production, is expected to rise from 5.5 per cent in 2024 to 5.8 per cent in 2027.
Felisberto Ruco
