Between October this year and March 2025, Mozambique’s economy could fall 0.7 percentage points short of its real capacity due to the influence of climatic events. Forecasts for this year point to growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of around 5.5 per cent.
According to the newspaper Noticias, these prospects are put forward by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) in its fiscal risk assessment for 2025, a document that recognises that natural disasters influence the economy’s ability to reach its potential.
The MEF says that during the next rainy and cyclonic season, the country will be under the influence of the La Niña phenomenon, which will lead to above-normal rainfall in the Centre and South regions.
Mozambique is among the ten countries in the world most vulnerable to the impact of climate change, and on the African continent it is the most susceptible.
As an example, between 2012 and 2024 59 disasters were declared, including 15 tropical cyclones and 39 above-normal rains, affecting thousands of people who required urgent humanitarian assistance. During this period, rains and tropical cyclones were the most recurrent events, victimising 8.9 million people.
Nevertheless, the Ministry points out that for next year, the medium-term outlook suggests an estimated average growth of 5.1 per cent, compared to 4.6 per cent in the pessimistic scenario, an assessment explained by the weaker performance in some economic sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, construction and trade.
Lower economic growth could mean a reduction in state revenue collection of 15.5 billion meticals and a reduction in the primary balance to 1.8 per cent of GDP.
