The growing political instability in Mozambique, triggered by the contestation of the results of the general elections on 9 October 2024, represents a significant risk for US investments in the country and could compromise US strategic interests in the region. The assessment is contained in an article published by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), consulted this Wednesday (8) by Diário Económico.
The United States Institute of Peace is a national, non-partisan and independent institute founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical and essential for US and global security.
In its analysis of the situation in the country, USIP warns that the worsening political crisis and growing violence in the country could trigger a new phase of instability, with direct economic and diplomatic repercussions for the US and its allies.
Since the elections, Mozambique has seen protests in several cities, marked by clashes between demonstrators and security forces, which have resulted in hundreds of deaths and injuries. The opposition, led by Venâncio Mondlane, is contesting the victory of the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) candidate, Daniel Chapo, arguing that the electoral process was fraudulent.
The Constitutional Council validated the results, but international organisations and observers pointed out irregularities in the election.
According to USIP, the deterioration of the political environment could directly affect US interests in Mozambique, a country that has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of US economic assistance in Africa.
In 2023, US bilateral support for the country exceeded 35.1 billion meticals (550 million dollars), including funds for economic development and security programmes. In addition, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) signed a 34.3 billion meticals (537 million dollars) agreement with Mozambique to boost structural reforms.
The risks of instability also extend to the energy sector, where US companies such as ExxonMobil are evaluating investments of more than 1.9 trillion meticals (30 billion dollars) in natural gas projects. Political uncertainty and the escalation of violence could lead to the suspension or postponement of these investments, impacting not only Mozambique, but also global energy security.
USIP also emphasises that the post-election crisis in Mozambique is taking place in a context of additional challenges, including the extremist insurgency in the province of Cabo Delgado. The conflict in the northern region has displaced around one million people since 2017 and has hampered the exploitation of strategic natural resources.
Worsening instability could compromise peacemaking efforts led by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda, as well as weakening the Mozambican government’s ability to respond to internal challenges.
‘In 2023, US bilateral support for the country exceeded 35.1 billion meticals (550 million dollars), including funds for economic development and security programmes. In addition, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) signed a 34.3 billion meticals (537 million dollars) agreement with Mozambique to boost structural reforms’
The USIP article suggests that the United States play a more active role in resolving the Mozambican crisis, using its diplomatic and economic influence to promote negotiations between the parties involved.
The institute argues that Washington can exert pressure to guarantee a process of inclusive political dialogue that ensures greater electoral transparency and government stability in the country.
With the inauguration of President-elect Daniel Chapo approaching, scheduled for 15 January 2025, tension in Mozambique continues to grow, and fears of an escalation into a wider conflict persist.
For the United States, guaranteeing political stability in the country may be essential not only to protect its investments, but also to preserve the geopolitical balance in the southern African region.
